2011-09-03 00:13:11Extreme Flooding In 2010-2011 Lowers Global Sea Level
Rob Painting
Rob
paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
118.92.59.252

Post here. Hopefully it makes sense, I'm a bit tired at the moment. It's companion piece for the NASA Satellites Detect Pothole on Road to Higher Seas  cross-post.

Thinking of turning it into an intermediate rebuttal, for the next time we have "skeptics" bleating about sea level fall during La Nina.

2011-09-03 01:15:18
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
69.230.106.125
Nice job Rob, very interesting. At the end, the last sentence "it never seems to occur to them why" is just phrased a bit awkwardly. Maybe re-phrase to something like "they never seem to question the causes of these changes."
2011-09-03 02:03:30
MarkR
Mark Richardson
m.t.richardson2@gmail...
192.171.166.133

I like it.

 

A few bits of jargon sounding stuff could do with being edited out and I think it would be important to get across the difference between TEMPORARY storage and LONG TERM storage in glaciers and ice caps. I know you allude to it, but it seems like a loophole some people will jump into as it is.

2011-09-03 03:54:49
Riccardo

riccardoreitano@tiscali...
93.147.82.154

Good job.

2011-09-03 04:23:21
Andy S

skucea@telus...
66.183.179.249

Very good.

Do you have a link directly to your Figure 4? Just by eyeballing it it looks as though there is a rough balance of red and blue in S America and Africa. Eurasia and N America are less clear due to area distortion at high latitudes. Did the original source have a quantitative asssesment of how much extra water there is on land, according to GRACE, and how this corresponds to the sea level drop? I note that the scale on the GRACE map is +/- 50mm, whereas the sea level drop is is only 6mm, so there's plenty of scope for the net changes on land being sufficient to account for the SL drop, even allowing for the realtively larger proportion of ocean area.

 

Added later, here's the best link I could find for Fig 4.

I did a very rough calculation and Austalia's extra water accounts for about 1mm of the global sea level fall (50mm extra over Godzone continent, having 1/50th of the area of the oceans)

2011-09-03 08:37:17
Rob Painting
Rob
paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
118.92.44.162

Cheers guys.

MarkR- I've altered some text to use plainer language. Thought it has been made clear about temporary versus permanent sea level change, but will have another look tonight. I just think the essence of the original article from NASA has sailed completely over the heads of most people, so may have overcompensated.

Andy - Fig 4 is from the NASA JPL article. I believe it was created by Josh Willis, their sea level expert, but I could be wrong (just the way the e-mail exchanges were worded). I'm assuming the GRACE presentation by Carmen Boening (NASA JPL oceanographer) will be the subject of a published study in due course, but I might have the wrong end of the stick.

Nice idea about quantifying the effect, but my eyecrometer is not up to scratch.

 

 

2011-09-03 13:24:25
Sarah
Sarah Green
sarah@inlandsea...
67.142.177.24

Nice.

You might sneak in a reminder that the long term SL rise is due to ocean heating and ice melt, neither of which are slowed by the temporary piling up of water on continents.

2011-09-03 15:52:41
Albatross
Julian Brimelow
stomatalaperture@gmail...
199.126.232.206

Nicely done Rob!

2011-09-03 18:38:34
Rob Painting
Rob
paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
118.92.40.185

Sarah - I do point that out twice in the blog post, but one can never be too explicit with these things. I've therefore included it in the introduction. Ta. 

Dana - re-worded the awkward sentence. Thks.

2011-09-05 12:02:38
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
68.6.117.21
This one should be the next for publication to keep it together with the press release yeah?
2011-09-05 14:34:15I'll publish this tonight
John Cook

john@skepticalscience...
130.102.158.12
Eg - a few hours from now when I get home from GCI.
2011-09-11 12:27:51
Rob Painting
Rob
paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
118.92.52.106

JC/Dana/Yooper - I've made this post into the intermediate rebuttal of: Large sea level fall in 2010 means IPCC sea level projections are wrong.

How do I go about publishing this without duplicating the original post?  

I thought I'd get in early in case 2012 brings forth another La Nina and more "skeptic" whining about decelerating sea level rates.

2011-09-12 07:54:01
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
69.230.106.125

I went ahead and made it live.  You might need Super Admin powers to publish a rebuttal, so I went ahead and found a phone booth and put my spandex on.

2011-09-12 08:41:39
Rob Painting
Rob
paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
118.93.255.224

Hey, I've been given super powers too! I just didn't know how to use them!

2011-09-12 08:53:52
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
69.230.106.125

Oh that's right.  Well, when you go in to edit the post (while in Super Admin), there should be a pull down bar towards the top with the options Started, Published, and something else.  Just select Published and then save.