2011-09-02 02:02:48Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: IPCC TAR
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
69.230.106.125

Next in the series ready for review.

Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: IPCC TAR

2011-09-03 03:42:21
Riccardo

riccardoreitano@tiscali...
93.147.82.154

Looks good to me.

The sentence "climate model tuned to seven AOCGMs", repeated four times, is unclear.

2011-09-03 12:11:27
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
68.6.117.21

Yeah to be honest I'm not exactly sure what that means either, Riccardo.  I presume they mean that they took a simple model and gave it similar parameter values to the seven AOCGMs they used?  I didn't see a good explanation of this in the report, but I might have just missed it.

2011-09-03 15:48:53
Alex C

coultera@umich...
67.194.31.123

>>>Adjusting for the difference in warming trends between the TAR projection and GISTEMP data, assuming all else is correct, would give us an equilibrium climate sensitivity of approximately 3.4°C for doubled CO2.

Whoa, a 0.6˚C adjustment?  Eyeballing it the 2.8˚C seems very close, you sure?

2011-09-03 16:29:36
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
68.6.117.21
Yep Alex I checked a few times. The GISS trend is almost .2C per decade, and the TAR is more like 0.16C. It's not a huge adjustment really, just 20% or so.
2011-09-03 18:13:46Red Rags
Glenn Tamblyn

glenn@thefoodgallery.com...
121.219.52.128

Unfortunately, an expression like "climate model TUNED to seven AOCGMs" is like a red rag to a skeptic bull.

2011-09-03 21:53:11
MarkR
Mark Richardson
m.t.richardson2@gmail...
134.225.187.197

Figure 2 caption needs typo corrections.

2011-09-04 01:10:33
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
68.6.117.21

Whoops thanks Mark.

Glenn - true, but that's the language in the TAR.  Anyway, deniers aren't our target audience. 

They included an explanation of the tuning process in an appendix, so I've added an explanation and reference.

2011-09-10 20:00:18
Bern

bernard.walsh@gmail...
121.208.104.10

You've got "AOCGM" instead of "AOGCM" in at least four spots.

2011-09-11 01:31:49
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
69.230.106.125

Whoops, thanks Bern.