2011-07-27 04:26:59Just Put the Model Down, Roy
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
64.129.227.4

I've asked Barry Bickmore if we can re-post this entry on his blog (Spencer at his curve fitting games again):

Just Put the Model Down, Roy

Would make a perfect lead-in to a post on Loehle and Scafetta's new paper (which I'll draft up this weekend), which plays the same curve fitting "mathturbation" games.

2011-07-27 05:46:35granted
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
64.129.227.4

Barry granted permission to re-post this.

2011-07-27 06:03:29
logicman

logicman_alf@yahoo.co...
86.177.51.236

I thought deniers said not to trust computer models ?

Someone should remind Roy Spencer of Anthony Watts' favorite sound bite: garbage in, garbage out.

2011-07-27 06:32:55
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
64.129.227.4

They trust computer models as long as they can use them to blame global warming on something besides GHGs!

2011-07-27 08:43:25
Rob Painting
Rob
paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
118.92.82.164

Spencer's 'model' is about as useful as an inflatable world atlas. Nice post, a bit heavy going for a lay audience, but no way around that given the subject.

2011-07-28 04:22:33
Chris Colose

colose@wisc...
128.183.2.130

There is also my previous post which you can link to

http://skepticalscience.com/spencer_ocean.html

2011-07-28 21:55:19
Alex C

coultera@umich...
67.149.101.148

>>>In Spencer’s original model, he could tune the beta and h parameters to get ANY CLIMATE SENSITIVITY HE WANTED, with exactly the same quality of curve fit?

Shouldn't be a question mark at the end there.

>>>Thermal advection is essentially movement of heat with the medium, e.g., in currents, and it isn’t necessarily linearly proportional to the temperature difference between layers of the ocean, as in Eqn. 4.  That being the case, I don’t have a clue what “physically reasonable” values for the model’s diffusion coefficients would be.

Would "i.e." be better than "e.g." here?  I get the impression that "in other words" is intended here, not "an example." 

2011-07-28 22:00:20
Alex C

coultera@umich...
67.149.101.148

Oh, and yeah

<-----------

I liked it, easy read.

2011-07-28 23:03:45
Rob Painting
Rob
paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
118.92.63.249

Roy Spencer's 'climate model'

2011-07-29 02:04:54
logicman

logicman_alf@yahoo.co...
86.177.51.236

Rob -

Spencer's 'model' is about as useful as an inflatable world atlas dartboard.  :-)

Forgot the upthumbs - done!

2011-07-29 04:30:41
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
64.129.227.4

Alex - thanks, will make those corrections.

Chris - good idea, I'll add some links to the previous discussions of Spencer's similar behavior that we've had here.

Rob - very funny :-)