2011-07-05 05:28:16Broecker 1975 Lesson - MSM version (need help with headline)
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
71.140.0.15

John and I discussed turning the 'lessons from past climate predictions' post for Broecker into an MSM post, given his accuracy, particularly in comparison to Easterbrook.

So I drafted up a post for that purpose.  It talks about how 'skeptics' emphasize/exaggerate what we don't know about the climate, then goes into the history of climate science (Tyndall-Arrhenius-Plass), then goes into Broecker's prediction, then compares it to Easterbrook's.

Feedback would be much appreciated.  Keep the audience in mind - we're going to see if Huffington Post will publish this.  In particular, let me know if you can come up with a good headline.  I think mine kinda sucks.

2011-07-05 05:39:39
Daniel Bailey
Daniel Bailey
yooper49855@hotmail...
97.83.150.37

Nice job, dana; reads well.

How about "The Past Through Tomorrow" (those older Sci-Fi fans among us will recognize that bit)?

2011-07-05 05:40:11
Daniel Bailey
Daniel Bailey
yooper49855@hotmail...
97.83.150.37

Why do I always forget the thumb-ey?

2011-07-05 05:51:24
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
71.140.0.15

Not bad, but how about a headline that those of us who aren't old fart sci fi geeks will get? ;-)

2011-07-05 06:08:26Options? We don't need no stinking options!
Daniel Bailey
Daniel Bailey
yooper49855@hotmail...
97.83.150.37
  • "Climate Science: Standing the Test of Time"
  • "Climate Science Done Right"
  • "Like a Fine Wine, Climate Science Ages Well"
  • "Timeless Classics of Climate Science"
  • "Built to Last"
  • "Enduring Truths: Climate Science is Accurate"
  • "Ain't no Denying This"
2011-07-05 08:28:36Burying the lead
John Cook

john@skepticalscience...
121.222.9.229

My main concern with this article is you kick it off with a denier meme. Keep in mind that many people only remember either the start and/or finish of an article. Some might not even get past the first paragraph. So there's a danger that you might actually reinforce the myth - people might come away just remembering "our ignorance about the climate system is just enormous".

I would suggest starting the article with your core message in the first paragraph, then explain the skeptic myth in the context of your core message, then finish with the core message.

The graphs are great for SkS but I wonder if they're still too much detail for MSM. Perhaps if you're hoping to get it in MSM, you should only show the GISS 5 yr avg, not the yearly values, for simplicity.

2011-07-05 08:46:50
Riccardo

riccardoreitano@tiscali...
93.147.82.76

I can't tell if it's good or not for MSM, I'll leave it to you. I like it, though.

On the pedantic side, Tyndall didn't measure the greenhouse effect, he measured the absorption by CO2. Remember, I'm writing a book on this ;)

2011-07-05 08:57:26
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
71.140.0.15
Riccardo you nitpicker :-) Since it's an MSM post, I'm trying to keep the science simple. 'Measured the CO2 greenhouse effect' is simpler than 'measured infrared radiation absorption by CO2'. Daniel - now we're talking. Several good options to choose from there. I'm not even sure which I prefer - anybody have input? John - should be simple enough to rearrange the post. I'll take a stab at it in a few hours.
2011-07-05 08:59:29
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
71.140.0.15
Oh for the graph, I thought about just keeping one or the other. But I like the smoothness of the 5 year average, and considering how short of a timeframe we've got for Easterbrook, I like keeping the annual data so it extends to 2010 as well. I don't think it's too terribly complex with both on there. But I could be persuaded otherwise.
2011-07-05 13:09:42
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
71.140.0.15

Okay, I reorganized to talk about the history first, then the "skeptics" towards the end, and used Daniel's "fine wine" headline.

2011-07-05 21:12:35Love it
John Cook

john@skepticalscience...
121.222.9.229
Headline is a beautiful metaphor - kudos, Daniel. And love the first paragraph - a really good implementation of leading with your core message.

One other very tiny suggestion - what about moving Christy's quote up into the preceding paragraph rather than giving it such visual prominence?

2011-07-05 21:34:57
Rob Painting
Rob
paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
118.92.123.225

Excellent. I'd like to point out that when "skeptics" say "our ignorance about the climate system is just enormous" - they are talking about themselves!

2011-07-06 01:37:39
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
64.129.227.4

Okay John, took Christy's quote out of blockquotes and move it to the preceding paragraph.  I think the article's in good shape, thanks for the help all.

2011-07-06 03:13:18
Albatross
Julian Brimelow
stomatalaperture@gmail...
199.126.232.206

FWIW...thumbs up :)