2011-06-30 17:52:00Roy Spencer on Climate Sensitivity
Chris Colose

colose@wisc...
69.86.130.70

This is a response to his recent blog post, so it should get out soon if possible (my Milankovitch article can wait, I still need to fix the language there). Let me know if anyone has trouble opening the link again, I might need to put it on embargoed.

 

http://www.skepticalscience.com/spencer_ocean.html

2011-06-30 18:55:39
Glenn Tamblyn

glenn@thefoodgallery.com...
124.181.150.49

Chris

I LOVE Fig 1 in this. http://droyer.web.wesleyan.edu/climate_sensitivity.pdf

 

Says it all. nearly 1/2 a billions years of history supports CS of around 3. Also there might be a positive in this that it doesn't strongly support a significantly higher figure.

2011-06-30 20:20:25Good overview
John Cook

john@skepticalscience...
121.222.9.229
Dana, do you mind bumping your google post till later tomorrow and running Chris' post first thing tomorrow?
2011-06-30 23:30:36Like it
Daniel Bailey
Daniel Bailey
yooper49855@hotmail...
97.83.150.37

In case you want to use Fig. 1, here it is:

Royer

Figure 1:  Comparison of CO2 calculated by GEOCARBSULF for varying DT(23) to an independent CO2 record from proxies. For the GEOCARBSULF calculations (red, blue and green lines), standard parameters from GEOCARB11 and GEOCARBSULF12 were used except for an activation energy for Ca and Mg silicate weathering of 42 kJ mol21 (ref. 13). The proxy record (dashed white line) was compiled from 47 published studies using five independent methods9 (n5490 data points). All curves are displayed in 10 Myr time-steps. The proxy error envelope (black) represents 61 s.d. of each time-step. The GEOCARBSULF error envelope (yellow) is based on a combined sensitivity analysis (10% and 90% percentile levels) of four factors used in the model.

2011-07-01 02:10:11
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
64.129.227.4

How about this - I'll post OA is not OK first, to give Chris time to decide if he wants to add the Royer figure or make any other revisions, then post Chris' later today.  I'll bump Google to tomorrow.  Sound good?

Chris, I'd also like to add some links to Barry B's posts on Spencer's latest silver bullet and blunders toward the beginning of the post, if you don't mind.  As examples that Spencer keeps coming up with these 'silver bullets' that sensitivity is low, and every time he's got fundamental errors.

2011-07-01 02:29:03
Chris Colose

colose@wisc...
69.86.130.70

Dana, sounds good, let me know what links you want to add. 

I just put in the Royer figure, and also felt compelled to put in the Knutti and Hegerl figure showing sensitivity estimates from many different methods, since it's probably the most neatly summarized figure on this topic that I know of.

2011-07-01 02:36:16
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
64.129.227.4

Whoops sorry Chris, I was making a few edits (i.e. adding in the links) at the same time as you were - I think we lost your edits in the process.  Can you add in the Royer figure again, and also look at the revised version and make sure you're okay with the minor edits I made?  Here's Knutti and Hegerl if you want to include it:

Various estimates of climate sensitivity

Various estimates of climate sensitivity (Knutti and Hegerl 2008).
 

The IPCC version is good too:

 

 

IPCC climate sensitivity estimates from observational evidence and climate models

2011-07-01 02:43:33
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
64.129.227.4

No I take it back, we lost my edits.  D'oh!

2011-07-01 03:30:04
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
64.129.227.4

Okay I added the links in again along with a few other minor edits.  Let me know if it looks okay to you, Chris.

2011-07-01 03:48:45
Chris Colose

colose@wisc...
128.183.2.130

Looks good Dana, thanks

2011-07-01 03:56:41
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
64.129.227.4

Cool, will publish this in a few hours, so if anyone else has any comments, let them be known soon.

By the way, nice post Chris.  The Royer paper is very interesting.  I'm a sucker for anything climate sensitivity-related.

2011-07-01 07:50:21I'll have some grammatical suggestions...
Alex C

coultera@umich...
67.149.101.148

And will update as I see them, just letting you know in case this takes me a bit.  Changes are bolded, what's shown below are the suggestions only.

First,

>>>The perspective on how easily a blog post overturns decades of scientific research is, at best, amusing.

>>>...which ensures that the oceans have had time to equilibrate...

>>>These include the increase...

>>>changes in the vertical temperature structure of the atmosphere...

>>>there are even longer equilibrium timescales scientists have considered that include...

>>>and some exotic events such...

2011-07-01 08:01:29
Chris Colose

colose@wisc...
128.183.2.130

Fixed.  Thanks.