2011-05-17 15:30:03A New Solar Reconstruction
Dana Nuccitelli

There's been some noise amongst "skeptics" about this new Shapiro et al. TSI reconstruction, which shows much (about 6x) larger past TSI changes than previous reconstructions.  So I tried to evaluate its plausibility from a climatic standpoint.  I think it makes for a pretty interesting post.  Bottom line: not surprisingly, it seems very implausible that it's correct.

A New Solar Reconstruction

2011-05-17 16:17:21
Rob Painting

Interesting read. Ta.

2011-05-18 08:44:57


Nice take.

You could add that such a strong solar forcing would force the earth's temperature to follow the same pattern of variability unless an even stronger forcing is active. Hard to immagine one.

2011-05-18 09:31:31
Dana Nuccitelli

Thanks.  So basically Riccardo, for the Shapiro reconstruction to be correct, we would expect temperatures to correlate very strongly with TSI, unless there were consistently another forcing on the order of 1 W/m2, yes?  That makes sense - that's a really big forcing.