2011-03-27 12:38:01McLean Exaggerating Natural Cycles
Dana Nuccitelli

In response to McLean's batshit insane prediction that 2011 will be as cold or colder than 1956, I put together a blog post.  Only problem is that my next blog post is my 50th on SkS, and this one isn't exactly epic.  Might have to hold off on this one and figure out something better to do for #50.  Anyway, let me know if you have any comments.

2011-03-27 14:57:14Hilarious
James Wight


Just a couple of comments:

  • To be "the coolest year since 1956", 2011 would also have to be cooler than 1964. So in fact it would be have to be slightly colder than on your graph!
  • You've done something weird with the hyperlinks.

Can't wait for Goddard's 2011 predictions for Arctic sea ice...

2011-03-27 15:23:12Dunno if you need that period after at al
Daniel Bailey
Daniel Bailey

As John Cook has previously discussed, the McLean et al. attempt to blame global warming on ENSO suffered from a serious divergence problem.

Rest looks good.


Re: McLean

Must be nice to not be burdened with a strong grasp on reality. 

Oh, to be cursed with an impoverishment of facts but eff it:

"Hey, look! A microphone!  A stage for my insanity!"

2011-03-27 15:34:14Thanks
Dana Nuccitelli
James - yeah, I had a formatting problem. Will fix those links. I don't know which dataset McLean is using, maybe HadCRU. Daniel - thanks. Yeah, McLean is nuts!
2011-03-27 17:37:43Mclean is a small fish
Glenn Tamblyn


See my comment over on General Chat.

Mclean is a small fish, just linked with Carter & DeFreitas. Give him the bait & let him hang himself. He is most useful as a tool for embarrasing those he hangs out with.

2011-03-27 17:45:26Broken links
John Cook


Dana, I fixed all your links. Just in case you didn't realise, if your link starts with http:/www and misses that second forward slash (it should be http://) then the WYSIWYG doesn't realise it's an absolute URL and adds http://www.skepticalscience.com/ to the start of the URL.

2011-03-27 19:53:01
Mark Richardson

Is he referring to global temperatures?


Quite often they pick something weird like temperatures on Sundays outside their spare shack in Arkansas or something.

2011-03-27 20:17:40
Rob Painting

Na,na...na,na....na,na....na,na....na,na...na,na....na,na....na,na............batshit insaneman!.

That graph by MartyS is a classic!.

Not bad for a cylon. Thumby.

2011-03-27 20:41:30


Great work Dana!

Yes, you are right it's the global LOTI (land ocean temperaure index) data set!

2011-03-27 21:09:28


This must be a kamikazi attack by McLean.

Unfortunately, it looks like he's attacking an island, not a battleship.

2011-03-27 23:28:26
Glenn Tamblyn


Cylon maybe, but definitely not a skin job, more wind up toy soldier

2011-03-28 02:14:29Thanks
Dana Nuccitelli
Thanks all. Glenn - McLean has already made his prediction, so I think the best response is to highlight how physically insane it is. Mark - yeah, he says "global" a few times in the press release, and even plots global temps over the past few years. John - I just tried to save before giving it a title or URL and that made it all janky. Thanks for fixing the links.
2011-03-28 03:33:00


In the paper they use the tropospheric temperature. Maybe you should show UAH and RSS too. I know it's irrelevant but I bet some denier will notice it.

2011-03-28 04:10:57satellites
Dana Nuccitelli

I don't think there's much point since they only go back to 1979, Riccardo.

2011-03-28 06:20:36


There's no point at all, but McLean et al used it and the lower troposphere temperature is more sensitive to ENSO than surface temperature. Someone wil rise this point and putting the former in the same perspective might help. Just this.

2011-03-28 16:57:54Slotted this into schedule for Tues morning
John Cook


This is scheduled for tomorrow morning - unless someone wanted to make a bet with McLean.

2011-03-29 02:35:483 in a row
Dana Nuccitelli

That's 3 in a row for the cyborg!

2011-03-29 09:20:56Re: James Wight - Goddard's 2011 predictions.


James Wight says: "Can't wait for Goddard's 2011 predictions for Arctic sea ice..."

His 'outlook' is hilarious.

Goddard doesn't understand that older ice is advected out of the Arctic and replaced by new ice.

"NSIDC shows a sharp drop in multi-year ice since the end of July, but very little drop in 1-2 year ice. It makes little sense to me how this selective loss could happen."



He presumably doesn't know about advection and assumes ice is lost only by melting and leaving open water:

"There was never any open water along the coast of Greenland or The Canadian Archipelago this summer. How could the MYI have disappeared? This makes no sense."



He presumably assumes that, because ice getting younger makes no sense to him, it follows that the ice isn't getting younger:

"Summer 2011 will start with considerably more multi-year ice than any of the last three years, and temperatures will probably be cooler."