2011-03-20 06:18:08Pre-1940 Warming Causes and Logic
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
69.230.107.233

I put together an advanced rebuttal to the pre-1940 warming skeptic argument, and put it into a blog post: Pre-1940 Warming Causes and Logic.  Let me know if you have any feedback.

2011-03-20 08:41:09
nealjking

nealjking@gmail...
91.33.112.192

You address the period 1910 - 1940 and 1975 - 2005; but you don't mention the intervening period. That gives the impression that you are cherry-picking. That hole should be patched; even if you only say that this will be handled in a separate articie.

2011-03-20 08:53:03Ok
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
69.230.107.233
I'll mention it in the blog post at least. Maybe put a link in the rebuttal too. It's just that the rebuttal is specific to pre-1940. But it will be easy enough to link to the mid-century cooling rebuttal too.
2011-03-20 15:34:39
Rob Painting
Rob
paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
118.93.200.98

Hard to follow the squiggles in figure 4 earlier in the 20th century, "observations" and "natural residuals" are too similar in colour. The authors fault I guess. Out of curiosity, how does the aerosol cooling compare for the two periods?. 

2011-03-20 16:39:43comment
Robert Way

robert_way19@hotmail...
142.163.189.164

cough cough *amo* cough cough...

2011-03-20 16:49:54Amo?
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
69.230.107.233
Rob P - most of the aerosol forcing came post WWII. Most relevant to that mid-century cooling. Robert W - amo?
2011-03-20 17:22:45
Rob Painting
Rob
paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
118.93.200.98

Aware of the mid century aerosol loading, just wondered about the period in question (pre-1940). So it was negligible?. 

2011-03-20 17:23:55Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation
John Cook

john@skepticalscience...
121.222.20.55

Robert is a lone voice among us insisting the AMO superimposes a cycle over the long-term warming trend. Not too dissimilar to what Tsonis and Swanson are saying, although they come at it from a different angle:

Figure 2: Observed GISS 21-year running mean global mean surface temperature (heavy solid) along with that temperature cleaned of the internal signal (dashed). The cleaned global mean temperature warms monotonically, and closely resembles a quadratic fit to the observed 20th century global mean temperature (thin solid) (Swanson 2009).

2011-03-20 17:30:42
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
69.230.107.233
Rob - I wouldn't say negligible, but pre-1940 aerosol forcing was pretty small. There's a plot of that in Meehl 2004 too. John/Robert - I did mention natural cycles, and I can change the specific example from PDO to AMO if you prefer. A cycle's a cycle to me :-)
2011-03-20 17:42:27
Rob Painting
Rob
paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
118.93.200.98

Cheers Dana, looked at the relevant graph. Thumbs up from me.

2011-03-20 18:07:17
Glenn Tamblyn

glenn@thefoodgallery.com...
139.168.2.249

Dana

Have you considered looking at the analysis by Thompson et al 2009 which looks at removing various signals to see the underlying warming trend. In particular they identify a possible link between a change in the nationality of the nations measuring SST's from ships during WWII and the temp changes in the record. They identify Aug 1945 as a point of major transition in the record. Since your Fig 4 has a 'hump from late 30's to mid 40's, adding this analysis might allow you to explain that feature of the graph as well, strengthening it.

 

2011-03-21 04:57:40Thompson
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
69.230.107.233

Glenn - I checked out the paper, but the analysis doesn't make much difference pre-1940.  It's mainly post-1940.