2011-03-02 15:18:40Part 3 of my Roy Spencer review--Need feedback
bbickmore

bbickmore@comcast...
71.195.211.251

Hi everyone,

I have a posted draft of the final installment of my Roy Spencer review, but it's password protected.  The password is "galena".  Anyone willing to give me some quick feedback before I go public?
http://bbickmore.wordpress.com/2011/03/01/roy-spencers-great-blunder-part-3/
Thanks!
Barry

2011-03-02 16:14:05comments
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
69.230.107.233

Bit of a typo toward the beginning: "To test this hypothesis, he fit his the output of a simple climate model"

"He found he could obtain a reasonable fit, but to do so he had to use four (actually five!) adjustable parameters"

So why say four if it's actually five?  Did Spencer say it was four when he actually used five?  I see this is explained later in the article, but at the beginning it's confusing.  I'd just say he used five adjustable parameters.

"This episode (and perhaps others like it) is one of the main reasons why Spencer says he is taking his message “to the people”.

Another very good post.  I like how you went step by step through Spencer's modeling process.  It might be helpful if you specified what the IPCC uses for alpha.  Maybe throw in a table comparing Spencer's parameter values vs. realistic values.  Plus maybe a column reminding the reader what each parameter is.  I kept forgetting what alpha and beta were, and had to scroll back up to where you defined them once or twice.

2011-03-02 16:15:11
Chris Colose

colose@wisc...
69.71.240.32

Very nice on first glance, I'll look better tomorrow.  There's other issues as well with the PDO-temperature connections

http://atmoz.org/blog/2008/08/03/on-the-relationship-between-the-pacific-decadal-oscillation-pdo-and-the-global-average-mean-temperature/