2010-11-11 13:38:35The human fingerprint in the daily cycle
John Cook

john@skepticalscience...
124.186.160.198

During the day, the sun warms the Earth's surface. At nighttime, the surface cools by radiating its heat out to space. Greenhouse gases slow down this cooling process. This is why deserts cool so much at night. Water vapour is a strong greenhouse gas and the dry desert air traps much less heat than more humid areas.

A more extreme example is the moon which has no atmosphere. At nighttime, there are no greenhouse gases to trap the outgoing heat. Consequently, the difference between day and night is more extreme with daytime temperatures getting up to around 230°C and nighttime temperatures falling below -230°C. So in other words, the stronger the greenhouse effect, the smaller the difference between daytime and nighttime temperatures.

We are currently experiencing global warming. If an increased greenhouse effect is a significant part of this warming, we would expect to see nights warming faster than days. There have been a number of studies into this effect, which confirm that this is indeed the case. One study looked at extreme temperatures in night and day. They observed the number of cold nights was decreasing faster than the number of cold days. Similarly, the number of warm nights was increasing faster than the increase in warm days (Alexander 2006).

Frequency of cold and warm days and nights
Figure 7: Observed trends (days per decade) for 1951 to 2003 in the number of extreme cold and warm days and nights per year. Cold is defined as the bottom 10%. Warm is defined as the top 10%. Orange lines show decadal trend (IPCC AR4 FAQ 3.3 adapted from Alexander 2006).

The difference between daytime and nighttime temperatures is also known as the diurnal temperature range (DTR – the difference between minimum and maximum daily temperature). An increased greenhouse effect should cause the DTR to decrease. Over the last 50 years, DTR over land has shown a large negative trend of ~0.4°C (Braganza et al. 2004). The reason for the falling DTR is because nighttimes have been rising faster than daytime.

The daily cycle also offers interesting insights into climate change over the 20th Century. From the 1950s to early 1980s, global temperatures cooled slightly. A large contributor to the cooling was "global dimming" from 1958 to 1990 where less sunlight made it to the Earth's surface due to air pollution. However, over this period, the nighttime minimum temperature increased. While global dimming was cooling daytime temperatures, the increased greenhouse effect was warming the nights (Wild et al 2007). Even during mid-20th Century cooling, greenhouse warming was still percolating away while we were slept.

2010-11-11 15:00:33good
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
71.137.148.215
Looks good.  Is there a figure from Wild 2007 you could add to illustrate the continued nighttime warming mid-century?
2010-11-11 16:44:31
Rob Painting
Rob
paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
118.92.80.23
Yup. Looks good to me too. Like how you're reinforcing this message (human fingerprint)
2010-11-11 16:58:23Human fingerprints
John Cook

john@skepticalscience...
124.186.160.198

Had the idea today that I should do a blog post about each human fingerprint in the Scientific Guide. So will try to eke those out one after the other over the next few weeks.

But yeah, I was always planning to do it - repetitively hammer the human fingerprint theme. I'm just stepping up the schedule to get them all out before the Guide launch.

Dana, there is a pic in Wild 2007 - doesn't show nighttime warming but does show DTR over this time:

 

Change in diurnal temperature range averaged over global land surfaces from 1958 to 2002, shown as deviations from the 1961–1990 mean.

 

2010-11-12 03:43:26that works
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
38.223.231.252
That would make a good addition to the post.
2010-11-12 09:06:15
Riccardo

riccardoreitano@tiscali...
93.147.82.182

Good post.

Check the numbers on the lunar temperatures. The figure should be numbered 1.

2010-11-19 07:41:25hot stuff
jimalakirti

jimalakirti@gmail...
76.113.66.180
Excellent article.