2010-08-28 08:40:17Basic Rebuttal 65: It's microsite influences...
Jim Meador

jimm58@gmail...
67.101.212.216

It's microsite influences

What the science says...

Microsite influences on temperature changes are minimal; good and bad sites show the same trend.

The website surfacestations.org enlisted an army of volunteers to photograph US surface temperature measurement stations and document stations located near parking lots, air conditioners, or anything else that might impose a warming bias. They found that 89% of the stations did not meet the National Weather Service siting criteria in one way or another...not good. Does this mean that any warming trend is simply due to poorly sited measurement stations? 

Actually, an a analysis shows that stations with "good" and "poor" sites show very similar upward trends for temperature over time. The graphs below compare data from "good" stations to data from "poor" stations. Notice first that "good" stations track very closely to "poor" stations. Then notice that the "good" stations, located away from any local heat sources, actually show more of a warming trend!

 

Maximum and Minimum Temperature Anomaly for good and bad sites
Figure 1. Annual average maximum and minimum unadjusted temperature change calculated using (c) maximum and (d) minimum temperatures from good and poor exposure sites (Menne 2010).

 

The volunteers from surfacestations.org deserve credit for pointing out siting problems of the US Weather Service temperature stations. Unfortunately the fact that "good" and "poor" stations show the same upward trend proves that warming in the US is not just a measurement problem. Temperatures are trending upward all around the planet, not just in the US. Microsite influences on temperature measurements in the US can't explain the US temperature rise, much less the global rise.

(The intermediate rebuttal has more information about how the US surface temperature data is "homogenized" to correct for microsite influences, and an explanation for why the poorly sited stations show less warming.)

2010-08-28 10:50:02Nice!
doug_bostrom

dbostrom@clearwire...
184.77.83.151
Maybe I'm just tired today and not observant but I give this the thumbs up right now; it seems quite adequate.
2010-08-28 16:46:46Good one
gpwayne
Graham Wayne
graham@gpwayne...
217.44.86.17
I keep wanting to see more info - the reference network, other temp records - but I'm probably overdoing it. You hit the nail on the head very accurately so thumbs up from me too...
2010-08-28 16:56:18
doug_bostrom

dbostrom@clearwire...
184.77.83.151
"Quite adequate" seems a little diffident; I ought to have said "admirably concise and informative."
2010-08-28 17:17:24OK
nealjking

nealjking@gmail...
91.33.114.10
Yes
2010-08-30 01:49:43A vote for myself...
Jim Meador

jimm58@gmail...
67.101.218.102
I was just thinking of adding a link to John's related post on Why we can trust the surface temperature record but maybe it is OK as it is...
2010-08-30 13:06:41Looks good to me
James Wight

jameswight@southernphone.com...
58.105.164.221
I don't think you're allowed to vote for yourself, though.
2010-08-31 01:56:46My bad...
Jim Meador

jimm58@gmail...
67.101.223.21

Oops, sorry JW, my bad. Thought it was OK. I tried to go back and edit the post but could not see a way to remove the thumb...

-Jim Meador AKA KeepinItReal

2010-08-31 02:13:18
doug_bostrom

dbostrom@clearwire...
184.77.83.151
If you vote for yourself you're supposed to be shown in a press photograph smiling broadly while dropping your ballot into the box, preferably kissing a baby at the same time...
2010-08-31 05:56:15Comment
Robert Way

robert_way19@hotmail...
142.162.188.138
I'll make up for his vote. I vote thumbs up but won't give it. No problem now
2010-08-31 09:29:41Published
John Cook

john@skepticalscience...
124.186.162.78
All this thumbs up swapping is making my head hurt. I exercised admin privileges and reset it to how it all should be. In an ideal world, the forum will be set up so you can't approve your own rebuttal and you can edit your own thumbs up. One day, we may even reach that ideal world if I get the time to do the coding.