2010-08-27 04:26:46Basic rebuttal 43 - There is no correlation between CO2 and Temperature.
Niamhaill

niamhwynne@yahoo.co...
109.255.157.58

This is where the draft currently stands.

Studies show that there is a correlation between CO2 and average global temperature. For the last million years the two have followed similar trends. Both tend to be high at the same times.

There are short periods where they do not exactly match up because many other factors influence temperature. If the sun is in one of its low activity phases then it provides less energy. Oceans soak up heat then release it again. When a La Niña or an El Niño happens it impacts the weather.

Long-term patterns emerge from the data when the short term fluctuations average out. Since industrialization, when the levels of CO2 started rising, a definite pattern has emerged. Although the temperature may briefly fall as a result of one or more of these factors, the overall trend towards temperature increase is clear. Recent cool periods do not point to the end of global warming any more than a day without heroin breaks an addictive cycle.

CO2 is soluble in sea water. When water temperatures rise oceans release CO2 into the atmosphere as happened during the Pleistocene, when woolly mammoths roamed the Earth. Currently the oceans are acting as a sink, soaking up some excess CO2 from the atmosphere.

Right now there is more CO2 in the atmosphere than there has been at any point in the last 15 million years. Over the last 100 years global temperatures have risen around one degree Celsius. That may not sound like much, but bear in mind that the difference between an ice age and an ice free period on Earth is around 5 degrees Celsius. Short term data do not give the full picture.  

 

This version has a graph and a simple explanation.

Studies show that there is a correlation between CO2 and average global temperature. For the last million years the two have followed similar trends. Both tend to be high at the same times.

There are short periods where they do not exactly match up because many other factors influence temperature. If the sun is in one of its low activity phases then it provides less energy. Oceans soak up heat then release it again. When a La Niña or an El Niño happens it impacts the weather.

CO2 20th C

<meta content="OpenOffice.org 3.1 (Unix)" name="GENERATOR" /> <style type="text/css"> <!-- @page { margin: 2cm } P { margin-bottom: 0.21cm } A:link { so-language: zxx } --> </style> </p><p><font face="Arial, sans-serif"><font size="2"><em>Figure 1: Green line is carbon dioxide levels from ice cores obtained at Law Dome, East Antarctica (</em><em><a target="_self" href="http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/co2/lawdome.html"><font color="#0046aa">CDIAC</font></a></em><em>). Blue line is carbon dioxide levels measured at Mauna Loa, Hawaii (</em><em><a target="_self" href="http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/"><font color="#0046aa">NOAA</font></a></em><em>). Red line is annual global temperature anomaly (</em><em><a target="_self" href="http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt"><font color="#0046aa">GISS</font></a></em><em>).</em></font></font></p> <p><font face="Arial, sans-serif"><font size="2">The blue and green lines in Figure 1 shows the CO2 levels for the past 110 years. The temperature, indicated by the red line, fluctuates due to many factors, however there is a clear, trend towards higher temperatures. </font></font> </p> <p><font face="Arial, sans-serif"><font size="2">Long-term patterns emerge from the data when the short term fluctuations average out. Since industrialization, when the levels of CO2 started rising, a definite pattern has emerged. Although the temperature may briefly fall as a result of one or more of these factors, the overall trend towards temperature increase is clear. Recent cool periods do not point to the end of global warming any more than a day without heroin breaks an addictive cycle. </font></font> </p> <p><font face="Arial, sans-serif"><font size="2">CO2 is soluble in sea water. When water temperatures rise oceans release CO2 into the atmosphere as happened during the Pleistocene, when woolly mammoths roamed the Earth. Currently the oceans are acting as a sink, soaking up some excess CO2 from the atmosphere.</font></font></p> <p><font face="Arial, sans-serif"><font size="2">Right now there is more CO2 in the atmosphere than there has been at any point in the last 15 million years. Over the last 100 years global temperatures have risen around one degree Celsius. That may not sound like much, but bear in mind that the difference between an ice age and an ice free period on Earth is around 5 degrees Celsius. Short term data do not give the full picture. </font></font> </p>  <br /><p> </p> <p><br /><br /> </p> <p> </p>  <br /><p> </p><strong /></td></tr><tr style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" bgcolor="#366196"><td>2010-08-27 06:41:10</td><td>Way too long</td></tr><tr bgcolor="D8E0E4"><td class="commentbox" align="left" valign="top" width="10%">nealjking<br> <br> nealjking@gmail... <br> 91.33.114.71<br> </td> <td class="commentbox"> <p>Niamhail,</p><p>I don't think you will have anyone's attention long enough to get through this.</p><p>Neal <br /></p></td></tr><tr style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" bgcolor="#366196"><td>2010-08-27 09:09:21</td><td></td></tr><tr bgcolor="D8E0E4"><td class="commentbox" align="left" valign="top" width="10%">Niamhaill<br> <br> niamhwynne@yahoo.co... <br> 109.255.157.58<br> </td> <td class="commentbox"> <p><strong>See draft at top.<br /></strong></p></td></tr><tr style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" bgcolor="#366196"><td>2010-08-27 09:34:49</td><td>Narrow the scope</td></tr><tr bgcolor="D8E0E4"><td class="commentbox" align="left" valign="top" width="10%">nealjking<br> <br> nealjking@gmail... <br> 91.33.114.71<br> </td> <td class="commentbox"> <p>According to title, the scope of your rebuttal should be to explain that there IS a correlation between CO2 levels and temperature.</p><p>In this essay, there's no need to explain how or why CO2 has this effect: Actually, this explanation is the most difficult discussion in the entire AGW story. You cannot do it justice in a few paragraphs, so there's little point in bringing it into this essay.Another problem: If you want to explain the dynamics, you have to go into the explanation of the CO2 lagging the temperature - which is a whole other issue, handled elsewhere.<br /></p><p>John Cook's intermediate essay focuses mainly on the issue that there is a lot of noise in climate signals, so you can only derive the trend by letting the noise average out.  It might work better to focus even more sharply on that point in this essay.</p><p>Neal <br /></p></td></tr><tr style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" bgcolor="#366196"><td>2010-08-27 10:52:21</td><td>See draft at top.</td></tr><tr bgcolor="D8E0E4"><td class="commentbox" align="left" valign="top" width="10%">Niamhaill<br> <br> niamhwynne@yahoo.co... <br> 109.255.157.58<br> </td> <td class="commentbox"> <p>This edit function is insane!<br /></p><p><meta content="text/html; charset=utf-8" http-equiv="CONTENT-TYPE" /><meta http-equiv="CONTENT-TYPE" content="text/html; charset=utf-8" /> <title> <meta content="OpenOffice.org 3.1 (Unix)" name="GENERATOR" /> <style type="text/css"> <!-- @page { margin: 2cm } P { margin-bottom: 0.21cm } --> </style> </p><p><font face="Arial, sans-serif"><font size="2">Studies show that there is a correlation between CO2 and average global temperature. For the last million years the two have followed similar trends. Both tend to be high at the same times. </font></font> </p> <p><font face="Arial, sans-serif"><font size="2">There are short periods where they do not exactly match up because many other factors influence temperature. If the sun is in one of its low activity phases then it provides less energy. Oceans soak up heat then release it again. When a La Niña or an El Niño happens it impacts the weather. </font></font> </p> <p><font face="Arial, sans-serif"><font size="2">Long-term patterns emerge from the data when the short term fluctuations average out. Since industrialization, when the levels of CO2 started rising, a definite pattern has emerged. Although the temperature may briefly fall as a result of one or more of these factors, the overall trend towards temperature increase is clear. Recent cool periods do not point to the end of global warming any more than a day without heroin breaks an addictive cycle. </font></font> </p> <p><font face="Arial, sans-serif"><font size="2">CO2 is soluble in sea water. When water temperatures rise oceans release CO2 into the atmosphere as happened during the Pleistocene, when woolly mammoths roamed the Earth. Currently the oceans are acting as a sink, soaking up some excess CO2 from the atmosphere.</font></font></p> <p><font face="Arial, sans-serif"><font size="2">Right now there more CO2 in the atmosphere than there has been at any point in the last 15 million years. Over the last 100 years global temperatures have risen around one degree Celsius. That may not sound like much, but bear in mind that the difference between an ice age and an ice free period on Earth is around 5 degrees Celsius. Short term data do not give the full picture. </font></font> </p> <title>

 

2010-08-27 10:55:11
Niamhaill

niamhwynne@yahoo.co...
109.255.157.58

Hi Neal, I'm used to writing much longer articles and explaining all sorts of information.  I've just posted a new, completely different version which hopefully answers your points.  Thanks for your feedback,

Niamhaill

2010-08-27 11:19:12Some suggestions
nealjking

nealjking@gmail...
91.33.114.71

 "Science has shown" => "Studies have shown that there is a correlation between CO2 and global average temperature."

 "When CO2 rises, so does the global temperature." => "Both tend to be high at the same times."

"it's low" => "its low"

"data" is a plural noun; please adjust verbs accordingly.

"Long term data shows patterns that average out the short term fluctuations." => "Long-term patterns emerge from the data when the short-term fluctuations have been averaged out."

"Although the temperature may briefly fall": Please clarify that you are talking about the recent history in this case. Prior to the industrial era, there was no trend towards temperature increases, but rather cycles.

Neal
 
2010-08-27 11:41:05Yes sir!
Niamhaill

niamhwynne@yahoo.co...
109.255.157.58
Current draft at top.
2010-08-27 18:04:51OK, now comes the tricky part
nealjking

nealjking@gmail...
84.151.44.130

The most complicated thing about this argument is the following:

- In the prehistoric record, it is notorious that the temperature increase LEADS the CO2 increase, by about 800 years.

- The standard explanation for this is that the temperature increase causes more CO2 to be liberated from the oceans, and to be "baked out" of the tundras and marshes. This extra CO2 then acts to increase the warming; which increases the CO2, etc.; until it reaches a maximum. (The feedback does not go to infinity because the effect tapers off, it's not linear.)

- All this extra CO2 extends the warming for a longer period than would otherwise be expected from just the orbital configuration that led to the warming initially.

The reason I mention all this? If you were to just say, "The historical record shows that CO2 causes global temperature increase," you would fall into a trap, because a skeptic could truthfully say, "How can CO2 cause global temperature increase when the CO2 increase FOLLOWS the temperature increase?" The answer is that the temperature increase is initiated by something else, and the subsequent increase of CO2 extends this warming. 

This is discussed in other articles on this site, and is the reason why deniers (falsely) claim that Gore got it wrong: He didn't, he specifically stayed away from the issue of causality; but he also didn't explain it.

So please look over your text to make sure you can't be caught up on that point.

2010-08-27 22:09:04I
Niamhaill

niamhwynne@yahoo.co...
109.255.157.58
Current draft at top.
2010-08-28 00:03:39Comments
gpwayne
Graham Wayne
graham@gpwayne...
217.44.86.17

Hi Niamhaill,

there's an argument you could also use as a suppliment - it's conveniently economic. The way some sceptics frame this, they argue is that because something hasn't happened in the past it can't happen in the future. While it is true that, in the past, an external forcing occurred before the initial rise of CO2 (leading to feedbacks and, eventually, equilibrium), this cannot imply that using a novel forcing - 'artificial CO2' if you like - will not produce the same effect. In other words, something starts the process. It might have been something else the past. This time the forcing iteself is extra CO2 - and we know where it's coming from.

"All other things being equal, when water temperatures rise oceans release CO2 into the atmosphere..."

It isn't when all things are equal. It is physics, the solubility of gases in water is a function of temperature. It's an important point too, if you consider that as water temperature goes up, it isn't just that more CO2 is expelled: solubility also decreases. This is a positive feedback, of course.

"Right now there is a third more CO2 in the atmosphere than there has been at any point in the last million years".

Currently, CO2 ratio is the highest for between 15-20 million years (Tripati 2009).  

2010-08-28 02:32:44Punctuation improvement: UPDATED
nealjking

nealjking@gmail...
84.151.44.130

- For the last million years the two have followed similar trends. 

- There are short periods where they do not exactly match up [comma] because many other factors influence temperature. If the sun is in one of its low activity phases [comma] then it provides less energy. Oceans soak up heat then release it again. When a La Niña or an El Niño happens [comma] it impacts the weather.

- Since industrialization when the levels of CO2 started rising [comma] a definite pattern has emerged. Although the temperature may briefly fall as a result of one or more of these factors, the overall trend towards temperature increase is clear. Recent cool periods do not point to the end of global warming [comma] any more than a day without heroin breaks an addictive cycle.

- [OMIT*****All other things being equal, w****OMIT] When water temperatures rise [comma] oceans release CO2 into the atmosphere as happened during the Pleistocene, when woolly mammoths roamed the Earth. Currently the oceans are acting as a sink, soaking up some excess CO2 from the atmosphere.

- Over the last 100 years [comma] global temperatures have risen around one degree Celsius. That may not sound like much, but bear in mind that the difference between an ice age and an ice[hyphen]free period on Earth is around 5 degrees Celsius. Short[hyphen]term data do not give the full picture.

2010-08-28 18:15:20Previous post
nealjking

nealjking@gmail...
91.33.114.10
wasn't clear, so I modified it. Niamhaill, please look again.
2010-08-29 00:48:39
doug_bostrom

dbostrom@clearwire...
184.77.83.151
Neal, I'm having a hard time following your drafts here. Any chance you could replace the draft at the top of the thread?
2010-08-29 05:18:08Punctuation improved
nealjking

nealjking@gmail...
91.33.114.10
Niamhaill

Studies show that there is a correlation between CO2 and average global temperature. For the last million years, the two have followed similar trends. Both tend to be high at the same times.

There are short periods where they do not exactly match up, because many other factors influence temperature. If the sun is in one of its low-activity phases, then it provides less energy. Oceans soak up heat, then release it again. When a La Niña or an El Niño happens, it impacts the weather.

Long-term patterns emerge from the data when the short term fluctuations average out. Since industrialization, when the levels of CO2 started rising, a definite pattern has emerged. Although the temperature may briefly fall as a result of one or more of these factors, the overall trend towards temperature increase is clear. Recent cool periods do not point to the end of global warming, any more than a day without heroin breaks an addictive cycle.

CO2 is soluble in sea water. When water temperatures rise, oceans release CO2 into the atmosphere as happened during the Pleistocene, when woolly mammoths roamed the Earth. Currently the oceans are acting as a sink, soaking up some excess CO2 from the atmosphere.

Right now there is a third more CO2 in the atmosphere than there has been at any point in the last million years. Over the last 100 years, global temperatures have risen around one degree Celsius. That may not sound like much, but bear in mind that the difference between an ice age and an ice-free period on Earth is around 5 degrees Celsius. Short-term data do not give the full picture.

2010-08-29 05:54:02Comment about correlation and link
Robert Way

robert_way19@hotmail...
142.162.188.138
Here's some interesting discussion about the correlation between CO2 and temperature

http://bartonpaullevenson.com/Correlation.html

I very much suggest it
2010-08-29 10:18:17
Andy S

skucea@telus...
66.183.162.8

This is a tricky rebuttal and I think that it should be focussed on the recent historical era, as John's Intermediate-level rebuttal is. I think the ice age should be avoided entirely, since it raises several difficult points (Milankovitch, the time-lags, etc) that need to be addressed in separate articles. A point-form of rebuttal should go something like this, I would recommend:

 

  1. There is a fairly good CO2/temp correlation, use John's Figure 4 or a simplified version of it (ie just CO2 vs temp; forget the ice core/Mauna Loa distinction, just mention it in the caption). The graph, by itself, is the rebuttal. But the fit is not exact because CO2 is not the only driver of climate change.
  2. There are short-term deviations from the trend because of: A) Weather/El Nino etc; B) Other natural influences, like the variations in the sun and the effects of big volcanic eruptions; C) Other human influences such as aerosols and land use play their part too.
  3. There are some long-term deviations as well that mean the curves don't track each other in lock-step: A) It takes a long time to heat the oceans and melt the polar ice; B) The changing climate may also change the amount of CO2 that the oceans and soils can hold, producing a feedback.
  4. Did I mention that the correlation is, in any case, pretty damned good?
To explain points 2 and 3 in detail would be beyond the scope of the article (at a basic level, anyway) and would unduly complicate it, so I would suggest that you simply state the effects and link to other rebuttals (preferably basic ones, if they are done) where the effects are discussed in more detail. Perhaps, to simplify further, just mention selected hyperlinked examples of deviations rather than the full list I outlined above and stick to weather/the sun/aerosols/ ocean thermal inertia/and ocean CO2 solubility feedbacks.
 
Hope this helps a bit. Writing these rebuttals is not as easy as it looks.... 
 
 


 

2010-09-01 10:51:15More to come...
Niamhaill

niamhwynne@yahoo.co...
109.255.157.58

Hi all, thanks for the input.  Lots to take on board and as soon as I have a couple of hours I'll get the next draft up.

Cheers, 

Niamhaill

2010-09-07 22:35:00Having trouble with the edit function so posted here instead.
Niamhaill

niamhwynne@yahoo.co...
86.44.44.25

This is where the draft currently stands.

Studies show that there is a correlation between CO2 and average global temperature. For the last million years the two have followed similar trends. Both tend to be high at the same times.

There are short periods where they do not exactly match up because many other factors influence temperature. If the sun is in one of its low activity phases then it provides less energy. Oceans soak up heat then release it again. When a La Niña or an El Niño happens it impacts the weather.

Long-term patterns emerge from the data when the short term fluctuations average out. Since industrialization, when the levels of CO2 started rising, a definite pattern has emerged. Although the temperature may briefly fall as a result of one or more of these factors, the overall trend towards temperature increase is clear. Recent cool periods do not point to the end of global warming any more than a day without heroin breaks an addictive cycle.

CO2 is soluble in sea water. When water temperatures rise oceans release CO2 into the atmosphere as happened during the Pleistocene, when woolly mammoths roamed the Earth. Currently the oceans are acting as a sink, soaking up some excess CO2 from the atmosphere.

Right now there is more CO2 in the atmosphere than there has been at any point in the last 15 million years. Over the last 100 years global temperatures have risen around one degree Celsius. That may not sound like much, but bear in mind that the difference between an ice age and an ice free period on Earth is around 5 degrees Celsius. Short term data do not give the full picture.  

 

This version has a graph and a simple explanation.

Studies show that there is a correlation between CO2 and average global temperature. For the last million years the two have followed similar trends. Both tend to be high at the same times.

There are short periods where they do not exactly match up because many other factors influence temperature. If the sun is in one of its low activity phases then it provides less energy. Oceans soak up heat then release it again. When a La Niña or an El Niño happens it impacts the weather.

CO2 20th Century

Figure 1: Green line is carbon dioxide levels from ice cores obtained at Law Dome, East Antarctica (CDIAC). Blue line is carbon dioxide levels measured at Mauna Loa, Hawaii (NOAA). Red line is annual global temperature anomaly (GISS).

The blue and green lines in Figure 1 shows the CO2 levels for the past 110 years. The red line is the annual global temperature. Although the temperature fluctuates due to many factors there is a clear trend towards increased temperatures.

Long-term patterns emerge from the data when the short term fluctuations average out. Since industrialization, when the levels of CO2 started rising, a definite pattern has emerged. Although the temperature may briefly fall as a result of one or more of these factors, the overall trend towards temperature increase is clear. Recent cool periods do not point to the end of global warming any more than a day without heroin breaks an addictive cycle.

CO2 is soluble in sea water. When water temperatures rise, oceans release CO2 into the atmosphere as happened during the Pleistocene era. Currently the oceans are acting as a sink, soaking up some excess CO2 from the atmosphere.

Right now there is more CO2 in the atmosphere than there has been at any point in the last 15 million years. Over the last 100 years global temperatures have risen around one degree Celsius. That may not sound like much, but bear in mind that the difference between an ice age and an ice free period on Earth is around 5 degrees Celsius. Short term data do not give the full picture.



 

 

2010-09-07 23:35:11Unnecessary
nealjking

nealjking@gmail...
91.33.122.182

"When water temperatures rise [need a comma] oceans release CO2 into the atmosphere as happened during the Pleistocene, when woolly mammoths roamed the Earth."

Actually, I don't really see how the woolly mammoths add to this article.

 

 

2010-09-24 10:02:51Woolly mammoths
Niamhaill

niamhwynne@yahoo.co...
109.255.157.58

In my experience people don't generally know which period Pleistocene (or other epochs such as Holocene) refers to.  Woolly mammoths tell them that it was recent enough that early man was round but dinosaurs were long gone.  I've taken it out.

Would it be best to scrap the current draft and start again, just simplifying the intermediate rebuttal that John has written or is this heading towards an acceptable rebuttal?

2010-09-25 09:57:27Something to look at...
Robert Way

robert_way19@hotmail...
142.162.201.109
Given the subject at hand. This link would be a very good start.

http://bartonpaullevenson.com/Correlation.html
2010-09-25 11:53:57Thanks Robert
Niamhaill

niamhwynne@yahoo.co...
86.44.41.27
Thanks Robert, I had a look at that before.  I think the graph I've used gives a similar picture but more simply. 
2010-10-05 07:09:47
doug_bostrom

dbostrom@clearwire...
184.77.83.151

Would it be best to scrap the current draft and start again...

No, rather this seems like one of those subjects that's necessarily going to require leaning on the intermediate argument more than usual.  Not amenable to simplification but I think your last draft is strongly suggestive of how circumstances dictate different behaviors in climate. You might use some more words to delineate more of those different circumstances in the past, overtly suggest checking the intermediate rebuttal for details.

Skeptics will leap on the graph w/the usual neurotically myopic "correlation is not causation" chant. That said, most normal people will take the point.

This could stand a little clarification:

Long-term patterns emerge from the data when the short term fluctuations average out.

"smoothed?" "are averaged?"  Tricky because skeptics will leap on anything smacking of obscuring phase relationships. 

Short term data do not give the full picture. 

Seems a little conflicted w/the graph of the past 100 years. 

2010-10-05 12:09:56comment
Robert Way

robert_way19@hotmail...
142.162.21.244
This has got me thinking you know... the relationship between the two is likely best seen when considering rate of change to temperature anomalies... my thinking is that is why the current warming began. It is likely that our GHG emission would of had a long term effect on climate regardless but it wasn't until the rate of change of GHGs started going all exponential and jumping forward by leaps and bounds that the temperatures began to rise accordingly...the earth's system works well to moderate itself but it lost its thermostat when increases occurred this quickly...

Either way if the question is whether there is a correlation, just plot up the correlation graph too...