2011-10-03 16:17:12New SkS graphic of 1970s predictions
John Cook

john@skepticalscience...
130.102.158.12

Dana has digitised the graph from Peterson et al 2008 of 1970s peer-reviewed predictions and we've added a simplified version of their graph to the SkS graphics page:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/graphics.php?g=43

Comments/feedback?

2011-10-03 18:35:23
Glenn Tamblyn

glenn@thefoodgallery.com...
124.176.244.253

Cool. A reference to Peterson as the source might be good - not just us evil Warmistas pulling things out of thin air.

2011-10-03 22:40:26Credit
John Cook

john@skepticalscience...
123.211.208.191
If you squint your eyes and turn your head, you can just make out the reference to Peterson in the bottom right corner :-)

On the graphics page, I also link to the full Peterson paper.

2011-10-03 23:33:27
Daniel Bailey
Daniel Bailey
yooper49855@hotmail...
97.83.150.37

Looks like a Hockey Stick...

2011-10-04 02:12:09
Paul D

chillcast@googlemail...
82.18.130.183

Nice.

2011-10-04 02:42:17
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
64.129.227.4

Looks good John.  By "digitized" I looked at how many papers were listed for each year and typed the number into Excel :-)

2011-10-04 20:28:11
Ari Jokimäki

arijmaki@yahoo...
192.100.112.202

I think Peterson et al. have been too generous for cooling papers:

Twomey (1977) doesn't predict cooling. It just says that pollution increases cloud reflectance for certain types of clouds and decreases it for certain types of clouds and that reflectance increasing effect might be stronger given the distribution of cloud types in Earth's atmosphere. It doesn't address other forcings and it also doesn't say anything about future temperature.

- Chylek & Coakley (1974) seems to be about aerosols only, but I only have seen their abstract.

- Barrett (1971) also seems to be about aerosols and suggests that if mankind would increase aerosol emissions by a factor of 50, it could cause substantial cooling. So not exactly a prediction of cooling with realistic forcings.

2011-10-04 20:48:31Digitized
John Cook

john@skepticalscience...
123.211.208.191
Dana, Excel is digital, isn't it? :-)
2011-10-05 12:11:11
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
69.230.101.55

Yeah that's the thing Ari - just about all of these "cooling predictions" were based on scenarios where aerosol emissions continued to accelerate rapidly.  I covered that in the "they predicted an ice age in the 70s" rebuttal.  I guess Peterson's kind of throwing the denialists a bone on some of those papers.