2011-02-08 10:46:12Collaborating with Grypo on a YouTube video
John Cook

john@skepticalscience...
123.211.149.21

In a recent comment, Grypo mentioned a he'd put together a video on "fingerprints" and "indicators". It's a great video and I wondered whether it would be possible to combine his work with the human fingerprints graphics at Skeptical Science. So I emailed him suggesting a collaboration. Grypo emailed back:

This sounds like a good idea.  Do you have any specific suggestions?  I think your background would work nice to start out with.  Then have your words move up or fade in with my charts or paper abstracts separately.  Then after the indicator section, then the finger print section, bring up all your words for each.  The end would just be your graphic with all your words, then my finger print ending or something like that.  I'll also need more science help from you I think.

Noting there was also some feedback on Grypo's movie in the comments thread, I thought the forum might be a good place to collaborate and discuss ideas on what text to use, how much text, how SkS graphics could be adapted, etc. If anyone has access to graphic software like Illustrator and would like the originals of my graphics to play with, let me know and I'll email you the file in whatever format you need (I sent Peter Sinclair some .ie versions of my graphs yesterday which he animated and used in his latest video on Articgate).

So I've invited Grypo to join this forum. I guess the next step is to look at the existing video and for everyone to post suggestions - any science to be added? Can the words be trimmed to be briefer? How can graphics be used?

2011-02-08 10:53:25Some initial feedback
John Cook

john@skepticalscience...
123.211.149.21

For the fingerprints, I would use figures instead of or as well as abstracts. For example:

Nights warming faster than days: I have a simple graphic in the Guide to Skepticism that clearly illustrates this

Stratosphere: I describe this as "upper atmosphere is cooling while the lower atmosphere is warming"

If using abstracts, I would also use Peter Sinclair's practice of highlighting the text within the abstract to direct the eye to the important part.

2011-02-09 07:13:00
grypo

gryposaurus@gmail...
173.69.56.151
Those are good ideas.  I need to trim the abstracts down a little too. 
2011-02-09 07:59:41abstracts
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
38.223.231.252

It's a good video, but the abstracts are difficult to read.  A different font color might help, plus either trimming them down or highlighting the key bits of text as John suggested.

You might consider adding a bit about how much warming is dangerous in one of the "so what?" sections.  I've got some relevant references here.  For example from Hare (2003):

Above 2°C the risks increase very substantially involving potentially large extinctions or even ecosystem collapses, major increases in hunger and water shortage risks as well as socio-economic damages, particularly in developing countries.
2011-02-17 13:39:52
grypo

gryposaurus@gmail...
173.69.56.151

Here's a few slides, just to let you know where I'm going with this.  Not sequential, no music or animations.  Just a basic ppt to flip through.  Let me know if this what you all had in mind.

 

 

2011-02-17 17:37:49Nice video
Robert Way

robert_way19@hotmail...
134.153.163.105
nice video but perhaps underlining things in the abstracts or highlighting
2011-02-18 09:20:08
grypo

gryposaurus@gmail...
173.69.56.151

Check it out!  Thoughts?  Is this a final?  

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GtyCEcgoQ3Y

2011-02-18 09:43:33much improved
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
38.223.231.252

That looks much better, grypo.  You have 'change in stratospheric temperature' (which I would suggest changing to 'cooling stratosphere') twice, at 0:36 and again at 1:05.  You've also got Hare 2003 twice, at 1:58 and 3:40.

Overall it's good though.  The Bach is very soothing.

2011-02-18 11:26:22
grypo

gryposaurus@gmail...
173.69.56.151

Thanks Dana.  I made the corrections but haven't uploaded it yet.  I'd like John to look to make sure it passes his judgement, and stays within his basic structure before uploading it again..

2011-02-18 12:00:36Idea for a 'How we know we're causing warming' resource
John Cook

john@skepticalscience...
144.131.205.143

Grypo, I had a look, it's great! I have a number of suggestions of possible improvements.

But first, can I ask something? I've been thinking a lot about how we can have maximum impact, obtain as much attention as possible for the work we do (eg - more bang for our buck). And I think a key is to be strategic in how we release our content, try to create something newsworthy then release press releases.

So we could just release this as another YouTube movie and do a blog post and it will get probably a lot of people look at it. But if we want to take it to the next level, we could combine this with a number of other ideas percolating away at SkS, package it all together and release it with a press release. The chances are then it'll get to a broader audience, not just the blogosphere (which tends to be preaching to the converted). Eg - some of the other ideas currently in the works that complement your video:

  • I've been meaning to do a blog post "How we know we're causing global warming in a single graphic" which is basically a repackaging of the Human Fingerprints graphic. I was going to make this our first Treehugger post.
  • This single graphic of human fingerprints would go on the Climate Graphics page
  • A proposed Huffington Post article "If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck" giving the same 'human fingerprints' material in a different way.
  • I'm working on a poster that contains all the fingerprints plus the details from the Guide to Skepticism
  • I've even talked with someone about the possibility of "trading cards" each containing a fingerprint, which would be released as PDFs
  • And of course there's always the Guide to Skepticism which encapsulates all the fingerprints

So what I'm thinking is we put together a package - a "How we know we're causing warming" resource (or should it be "How we know humans are causing global warming"?). So it provides all the evidence in these visual, catchy ways, for people to look at themselves and for climate communicators to use as a resource. The YouTube movie would be part of this package.

It means we'd have to take the time to put it all together though. So my question - is this worth doing? Should we think ambitious, try to create something special that could get lots of attention? Or is my idea lame and not worth the trouble - we should just release the YouTube movie in a blog post and ignore my crazy, grandiose ideas.

2011-02-18 12:55:31
grypo

gryposaurus@gmail...
173.69.56.151

John,

 

I like big ideas too.  The more attention, the better.  

Count me and the video in. 

2011-02-18 15:46:23package
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
69.230.107.233
As long as you're putting together a big "How we know humans are causing global warming" package (which I think is an interesting idea and worth a shot), you could throw in my recent post on How We Know Recent Global Warming is not Natural.  Just a suggestion since it's such a similar topic, although the post has already been published.  But it adds the dimension of answering Spencer's challenge too.
2011-02-18 15:56:23I agree this is a good idea
James Wight

jameswight@southernphone.com...
112.213.164.22

Human fingerprints are very under-publicised in my opinion.

I would also recommend adding…

1)      the graph of global temperature observations compared with hindcasts by models including only natural forcings, and models including both natural and anthropogenic forcings.

2)      maybe the new paper(s) on increasing intense rainfall, if there is a useable graphic. As I’ve said before, I think we need to be getting out the message about the connection between global warming and intense rainfall while people are paying attention.

2011-02-18 17:26:48Smoking gun
John Cook

john@skepticalscience...
144.131.205.143

James, yes, should include the natural vs natural + anthro model results - in David Archer's "Smoking Gun", this is his smoking gun.

My original thinking was well, we've posted the fingerprints, job done. But now I think we need to keep repeatedly telling people about them and find new and creative ways of explaining it.

It's worth pointing out that neither Monckton Myths nor Prudent Path nor this were in our original plans for 2011. What else is going to happen this year?

Dana, yes, should include your post in there somewhere plus fingerprinter's post around Christmas time that also spoke of the evidence for AGW (from paleo-data mostly). Plus "The Big Picture" and probably a few other articles. Am thinking about how best to structure it and roll it out. Am wondering whether to just throw out all the info in one big rush, or to do a series of blog posts - graphic then video then Huff Post article then posters then trading cards then a final post promoting a single page that encapsulates all these resources in a single page and then send the press release promoting that page. 

I dunno - any thoughts on that roll-out strategy? Any better ideas?

2011-02-19 04:38:40another theme week?
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
38.223.231.252

Maybe after Prudent Path Week we could do a Fingerprint Week, with a series of blog posts culminating in a post about the master page/PDF?

2011-02-19 04:56:20
grypo

gryposaurus@gmail...
173.69.56.151

James,  I put the antro v natural graphs in the fingerprint section.

 

I have a precipitation graph in the 'humidity' slide of 'indicators' section.  Perhaps someone can get me a graph from the new Nature paper for the fingerprint section?

2011-02-19 06:35:32
grypo

gryposaurus@gmail...
173.69.56.151

A word about the project.

 

In my view the 3 things that the public needs to know are

1.  It's started = Indicators

2.  It's us = fingerprints

3.  It causes risk = ?

 

There is whole new way of denial and it is the polyanna cherry-pickers aka lukewarmers.  They've put up a convincing front that because we cannot predict the exact effects, we don't need to do anything, or much, about it.  As you can see, my video is lacking the 'risk' part.  This also gets us into the uncomfortable conversation about ethics, values, and how much and what are we willing to sacrifice.  While I agree the initial step to communication is 1 and 2, and this should remain the focus, I think something that touches on 3 is needed to  put the problem in proper context.  Perhaps a metaphor like 1 and 2 have.

2011-02-19 10:07:55Overall climate message or focus on attribution?
John Cook

john@skepticalscience...
144.131.205.143
A complete climate message needs 4 elements: "it's happening", "it's us", "it's bad", "we can fix it". Eg - you have to give people the bad news but end with hope and positive actions. So my plan was to down the track create two other infographics similar in structure to the "Warming Indicators" and "Human Fingerprints" graphics. One is "Impacts of global warming" that would include desertification, floods, acidification, etc. The next would be "How we can fix global warming" featuring windmills, solar panels, efficiency, etc. Then a summary article, "Everything you need to know about global warming in 4 graphics".

So the question - do we give the complete message now or just focus on "it's us". I'd suggest focus on the fingerprints for now and build up to a complete message. But welcome any thoughts on the best approach.

2011-02-19 11:05:09
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
38.223.231.252

That's a good question.  I suggested that grypo add the Hare 2003 quote because his video asked "so what?".  The answer to "so what?" is that the consequences will be bad. 

But if you plan on tackling the consequences in the future, it would make sense just to stick to discussing how the fingerprints show we're causing climate change.

2011-02-19 11:14:42
grypo

gryposaurus@gmail...
173.69.56.151

Yes, 'what we can do' is the 4th element.  If the project presentation is effective, then the viewer is left to wonder about this.  But since the focus should remain on 'it's us' (I agree), then my only suggestion would be to highlight emissions scenarios and a brief description of adaption/mitigation/nothing.  I thought Lonnie Thompson had a great line in a recent paper.

 

Hence, the rate of global carbon dioxide emissions continues to accelerate. As a result of our inaction, we have three options: mitigation, adaptation, and suffering. 

 http://researchnews.osu.edu/archive/TBA--LTonly.pdf

2011-02-28 06:07:04
grypo

gryposaurus@gmail...
173.69.56.151

John said,

 "I have a number of suggestions of possible improvements."

 

When you get a chance, sent them over.  I have some time this week to put together another draft.