2011-01-11 13:13:20Queensland flooding now very close to home
John Cook

john@skepticalscience...
121.222.100.112
The flooding in Queensland has mostly been to the north of Brisbane, where I live. However, the torrential rains have been steadily moving south and now Brisbane is getting flooded. Today, parts of Strathpine, the suburb next to ours, is being evacuated. There's no indication yet whether our area will get flooded - it's hard to imagine so but the scale of flooding throughout Qld is already beyond imagining.

I can't help thinking about that NOAA quote - weather is nature throwing punches at us. Global warming is training nature to throw harder punches.

2011-01-11 13:46:12Better safe than sorry.
Daniel Bailey
Daniel Bailey
yooper49855@hotmail...
68.188.192.170

Pack and go to high ground; many in New Orleans waited a bit too long...and Katrina exacted a final toll.

 

My previous home flooded 4 years ago from a once-in-500-years flood.  We moved 3 months ago to one of the highest points in Marquette (I didn't tell my wife why I steered the home selection process to this one, but the elevation was a serious consideration for me).

 

Be safe.

2011-01-11 14:26:22Video of Toowoomba, several hours drive from Brisbane
John Cook

john@skepticalscience...
121.222.100.112
2011-01-11 15:20:23good luck
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
71.140.0.210
I hope you don't get flooded, John.  Good advice from Daniel to be prepared.
2011-01-11 16:45:28Cautiously optimistic
John Cook

john@skepticalscience...
121.222.100.112
This is footage of flooding about 10 minutes to the north of us:

This is flooding about 10 minutes to the south of us:

On the positive side, our particular area (Bray Park) seems to be suffering no instances of flooding yet. We must be elevated compared to surrounding regions - am trying to find data on elevation now. Do google maps publish that kind of data?

2011-01-11 17:15:45Google Earth show elevation
James Wight

jameswight@southernphone.com...
112.213.166.150
Google Earth show elevation.
2011-01-11 21:26:45
Riccardo

riccardoreitano@tiscali...
192.84.150.209
As an old time sailor I've learned to always be prepared for the worst when a storm comes. Never, NEVER, downplay the power of winds and water. Sometimes running away is not the best choice and almost never it is when it's too late. You need to have a wide view of the surroundings with the possible escape routes and consider to head there before they close or become too risky (e.g. in case of flash floods). And when this all ends, ask the local Government to provide these informations to citizens!
Hope you and your fellow citizens will stay safe.
2011-01-11 21:45:16
MarkR
Mark Richardson
m.t.richardson2@gmail...
192.171.166.144
Good luck John, hope you stay safe!
2011-01-11 22:08:29
Glenn Tamblyn

glenn@thefoodgallery.com...
143.238.231.226

John

I lived in Brisbane during the 1974 floods and it was scary. This is predicted to be higher. Look after your family, SkS can wait for a bit

Take care.

2011-01-12 09:17:50
Rob Painting
Rob
paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
118.93.198.226

Hmmm, seems to me that this is what global warming might look like.

 

 

 

 

All the mainstream media reports in NZ I've read have not mentioned global warming. Why is that?. Seems we should be making the most of this opportunity to spell out it out large to the uninformed masses. And no, I don't mean exaggerating scientific understanding, but why exactly is it that there's so much moisture in the atmosphere around Australia?, anything to do with the warm sea surface temperatures perhaps?. And why are they so warm?.

Oh, and John, keep safe brutha. 

 

 

 

2011-01-12 17:56:16
Glenn Tamblyn

glenn@thefoodgallery.com...
58.166.37.208

Actually Rob, I disagree that we should use this. The allegation is often made by sceptics that 'warmists' leap on any appropriate evvent and trumpet it as 'evidence of global warming', ignoring of course that they do the exact same thing in reverse. I think we should tread carfully on over-claiming causation with specific events. The floods in Queensland seem to be due to the mother of all La Nina's combining with high SST's. Global warming as a factor? Maybe. But not clear cut.

I tend to stick with the business/marketting dictum - under-promise, over-deliver. Don't claim too much then really deliver on what you claim. Will a lot of the Joe Public's draw a connection between this and AGW - yes. However a lot of Joe Publics in the NH will look at their winters and draw the opposite conclusion. To some extent we have to let people draw their own conclusions without prompting them. And we certainly can't put forward positions that can be quote-mined or cherry picked.

So if someone asks you do you think that the floods are indicators of AGW, if your answer is 'well it might be, its consistent with what we expect, but this is one so=ingle weather event', you are opening the door for someone who wants to think it is so to do so, while not giving ammunition to a denialist.

Isn't the psychology of this, the politics and all the dog-whistle stuff crud. One day we can all go back to our labs, computers and lives and just have some fun!. Until then, soldier on.

Meantime, this is gone OP. John, stay safe, and I would love to know how Aspley High School does. In 74 most of the ovals went under but the main school complex was OK - dramatic when you are 16.

2011-01-12 19:35:42
Rob Painting
Rob
paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
118.93.252.118

I wasn't just alluding to the Queensland Floods, but all the extreme weather that the Earth is experiencing, the UK winters too. If we wait for Joe & Jenny Public to connect the dots, I think my descendants and yours are going to literally experience hell on Earth.

One day we can all go back to our labs, computers and lives and just have some fun!. Until then, soldier on.

Wish that were true Glenn, but I expunged such fantasies from my mind a long, long time ago. Global warming, eco-system destruction, overfishing - there's only one place this is all headed. I'm only in this to help prevent further damage, I don't envisage a happy ending. I know this is contrary to how most people operate (optimism & belief in a happy ending) but it doesn't deter me. The balance of evidence supports my view too, hence my sense of urgency.

2011-01-12 20:09:19
Riccardo

riccardoreitano@tiscali...
192.84.150.209
At the lowest level, I've tried the tactic, suggested by Thomas Friedman, of talking about global weirding; I found that it works. So, my typical answer is "who knows, but we're seeing them more frequently and definitely it's getting weirder".
At a higher level, though, I try to elaborate a bit on moisture, water cycle, shifting patterns, etc.