2011-01-01 22:36:12The Republicans will indeed go on a warpath against climate science
nealjking

nealjking@gmail...
84.151.32.191

http://www.care2.com/causes/global-warming/blog/house-republicans-plan-climate-science-hearings/

 

 

2011-01-01 23:59:382011 will make 2010 look like the calm before the storm
John Cook

john@skepticalscience...
123.211.206.13

Republican investigations in the USA. In Australia, we will be introducing carbon tax legislation sometime after July this year. Time to gird our loins for some big battles this year. It's going to be a hot, hot year - politically at least.

Probably a hot year temperature wise too if ENSO switches back to El Nino conditions :-)

2011-01-02 05:16:03
MarkR
Mark Richardson
m.t.richardson2@gmail...
78.147.225.153

The La Nina hasn't really hit temperatures until this month. It's been going for at least a few months so overall 2011 will probably be significantly cooler than 2010...

 

But warmer than average ofc.

2011-01-02 07:05:58
Rob Painting
Rob
paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
118.93.216.175

Sure, as the evidence for global warming strengthens, and the weather gets even weirder, all the idiots have left is to "deny harder". 

As for ENSO, I really do worry what's going to happen when the next strong El Nino arrives. It's going to kill an awful lot of coral worldwide for starters, and the Amazon rainforest is going to be in deep doo-doos.   

2011-01-02 22:23:12
MarkR
Mark Richardson
m.t.richardson2@gmail...
89.243.32.138

Doesn't it depend on the strength? 2010 spiked up quite high (albeit not as high as '83 and '98 relevant ones).

 

I've about zero knowledge of coral effects etc. Seems possible that the most vulnerable stuff may already be dead, for example. And human global warming signal is only about 0.02 C/year at the moment, non-ENSO variability could easily cancel that out. There is a chance we won't see serious effects until the 2020s in which case the deniers will keep going strong in the media.

 

 

Since it's going to happen anyway, I have a sort of morbid hope that we do get a '98 level ENSO and relevant disasters just to give us a chance to quieten the deniers and let the public and policy makers see what's actually in store before the 2020s when even 3 C might be unachievable.

2011-01-02 23:04:18
Rob Painting
Rob
paintingskeri@vodafone.co...
118.93.207.84

Mark,

Just trying to finish up a few of the coral rebuttals (I'm slow at writing, and easily distracted), but most coral in the world are vulnerable. It's just that some areas have yet to see thermal thresholds exceeded. The 1997-1998 El-Nino killed 16% of all coral in the world and bleaching events are continuing to increase in frequency and severity (although no single worldwide event as bad as 1997-1998). Coral are disappearing at a frightening rate, about half of the coral cover in the world has been wiped out in the last 4 decades, and it's still disappearing at over 1% per year. From preliminary reports, perhaps the largest single bleaching event ever recorded happened this year, in the midst of a very strong La Nina, and the worst bleaching event ever recorded in the Caribbean occurred too.

It seems to suggest that the vast amount of heat building up the ocean is having very profound effects, allowing large pools of anomalous heat to accumulate periodically, even though the background ocean temperature is moving only incrementally.

Same with the record drought in the Amazon this year, driven predominantly by the warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic. The coupling of the warm tropical Atlantic and Amazon drought is a prediction of the modelers whose simulations revealed die-back of the Amazon by mid-century. They also predict a further warming in the Atlantic tropical sea surface as levels of aerosol pollution in the Northern Hemisphere continue to drop, so more intense drought is expected.

I know what you mean, but I definitely do not want to see a strong El-Nino again. Regionally, it might tip some eco-systems completely over the edge.