2010-11-23 16:18:18New Cloud Study Predicts More Global Warming Than Models Do
Daniel Bailey
Daniel Bailey
yooper49855@hotmail...
68.188.192.170

The Impact of Global Warming on Marine Boundary Layer Clouds over the Eastern Pacific—A Regional Model Study. Journal of Climate, 2010; 23 (21): 5844 10.1175/2010JCLI3666.1

Very, very sobering.  Science Daily article on it is here.

Co-author Kevin Hamilton concludes,

"If our model results prove to be representative of the real global climate, then climate is actually more sensitive to perturbations by greenhouse gases than current global models predict, and even the highest warming predictions would underestimate the real change we could see."
Main article paywalled; unlike boug_bostrom, my powers to find free copies are merely mortal.

The Yooper

2010-11-24 01:10:22
MarkR
Mark Richardson
m.t.richardson2@gmail...
192.171.166.144
I can get JoC stuff, if anyone wants a copy then post your email addy here :)
2010-11-24 01:56:31I confess I'm skeptical
John Cook

john@skepticalscience...
121.91.124.93
I haven't even read the paper yet so I'm in no position to judge. But I confess whenever I see claims of outlier climate sensitivity, whether it be too high or low, I'm a little skeptical. There are many lines of evidence pointing to a most likely value of 3C for doubled CO2.

on the other hand, the uncertainty is always skewed towards higher sensitivity. Maybe I should just read the paper :-)

2010-11-24 03:21:33copy
dana1981
Dana Nuccitelli
dana1981@yahoo...
38.223.231.252

Mark, can you send me a copy?  dana1981@yahoo.com

This study sounds very similar to Clement et al. (2009) which also found evidence for a positive low-level cloud feedback in regional data from the northeastern Pacific.

2010-11-24 10:46:05
Riccardo

riccardoreitano@tiscali...
93.147.82.95

Mark, please ==> riccardoreitano@tiscali.it ;)

Thanks

 

2010-11-24 23:17:43
Ari Jokimäki

arijmaki@yahoo...
192.100.112.210

Here's another recent paper reporting positive cloud feedback, but in this case increasing low cloud cover causes warming because it happens in the Arctic during the winter:

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2010/2010JD013900.shtml

2010-11-25 04:03:17
MarkR
Mark Richardson
m.t.richardson2@gmail...
134.225.187.80

Sent to John & dana, but 12 MB, so it's pretty heavy which probably explains why Riccardo's email rejected it. Do you have an alternate way of receiving it?

 

The news story just has the author arbitrarily expand it to the world, so we'll see. My inclination is that for higher climate sensitivity estimates you need very good evidence to overturn the evidence we have so far that points to a short term sensitivity that is about 50% likely to be in the range 2-3 C...

2010-11-25 05:16:22
Riccardo

riccardoreitano@tiscali...
93.147.82.78
Mark, let's try with riccardo.reitano@gmail.com