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2010-09-15 13:09:48 | Question re Hansen 1988 predictions | |
John Cook john@skepticalscience... 121.222.93.62 |
I wouldn't mind updating the graph on the Hansen 1988 prediction page:
Eg - it only goes to 2005. A skeptic objection to this is if you extend it to 2010, the discrepancy between Hansen's projections and observations are more stark. So my questions:
BTW, here's Hansen's prediction in 1981:
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2010-09-15 15:10:41 | covering it | |
dana1981 Dana Nuccitelli dana1981@yahoo... 71.137.148.215 |
I started the Advanced rebuttal on this subject and covered a lot of those issues. Gavin Schmidt did indeed update the temperature graph at the end of '09 (included in my rebuttal). And the '88 paper assumed a sensitivity of 4.2°C (not sure about the '81 paper). And the Scenario B total forcing is apparently 10% higher than reality (which I'm trying to verify in the Advanced rebuttal - CO2 was almost spot-on but other GHGs were too high in Scenario B). Anyway, I've still got a lot of work to do on the Advanced version (right now it's basically incomprehensible because I was mostly just putting the relevant graphics in there and trying to figure out the forcing formulas, then I got sidetracked on mid-century cooling), but feel free to take a look. | |
2010-09-15 15:37:36 | Great to hear you're on the case | |
John Cook john@skepticalscience... 121.222.93.62 |
Never mind my request and no rush on the advanced rebuttal - am happy just to hear that there is an updated version on its way. Rebuttal looks very thorough so far, look forward to it down the track. | |
2010-09-16 03:11:08 | in progress | |
dana1981 Dana Nuccitelli dana1981@yahoo... 38.223.231.249 |
Now that the mid-century cooling is just about done, I'll be able to work on Hansen '88 this weekend. Since I've got a pretty good start I should be able to get it done over the weekend. The only issue is that a couple of the GHG radiative forcing formulas (like methane) turn out to be rather complex. |