![]() | ||
2010-08-08 23:38:27 | Welcome to the Authors Forum | |
John Cook john@skepticalscience... 121.222.17.49 |
Welcome to the Authors Forum. This is a private forum available only to Skeptical Science users who've been upgraded to Author status. There are several ways to use the forum.
1. Publish a blog postIf you'd like to publish a blog post, follow these steps:
You can edit how much of your blog post displays on the homepage (it's recommended to show several paragraphs and your first graphic on the homepage for maximum impact). Here are the steps:
It's also strongly recommended everyone reads REQUIRED READING FOR ALL SkSers: How to make your blog posts 'sticky'. You can see posts by other authors at http://www.skepticalscience.com/posts.php 2. Review other rebuttalsThe most valuable contribution you can make is to review other rebuttals. When you visit the Authors Forum, make a point of checking out threads with some thumbs-up. If you deem the rebuttal good to go, approve it with a thumbs-up. If not, post a suggestion on how it can be improved . This way, we can get rebuttals through peer-review with a bit more focus and direction. If you've approved all the green thumbed rebuttals, next have a look at the rebuttals languishing towards the bottom that have no thumbs-up - either approve or post a comment. This will bump it to the top so other authors can also give it some love and attention. 3. Write a RebuttalIf you'd like to write a rebuttal to one of the existing skeptic arguments, follow this procedure:
Once your rebuttal has gone live:
4. Uploading images to the websiteThere are several ways you can insert a figure into your posts:
Apologies that these are fairly clunky options - I will work on a better option soon. 5. Upload a graphic to the Climate Graphics resourceTo upload a graphic to the Climate Graphics resource:
| |
2010-08-09 09:25:57 | Good start, code bug preventing posting of replies | |
John Cook john@skepticalscience... 121.222.17.49 |
Unfortunately the forum starts off with a bug preventing you from posting replies. Well, that's fixed now but let me take this opportunity to also say please feel free to post suggestions on how to improve the forum. It's bare bones now but I plan to add an Edit function so you can edit your own posts. Later I'll add moderation functionality and possibly create a general public forum for any Skeptical Science users to post on (although that'll be opening a can of worms). Anyway, if there's any feature you think will make the forum work better, post a comment here. | |
2010-08-09 14:10:17 | Suggestion for posting the three level rebuttals | |
BaerbelW baerbel-for-350@email... 93.231.169.101 |
Hi Folks, before too many rewritten rebuttals show up, I'd like to suggest to always add the corresponding argument number from the "fixed num list". Instead of "BASIC rebuttal: Water vapor...." it would be "BASIC rebuttal 24: Water vapor...." or "Rebuttal 24 - BASIC: Water vapor...." (the latter would perhaps even make it possible to create a sorted list by argument number). "BASIC rebuttal: 1998 is the hottest year on record" would be "BASIC rebuttal 07: 1998 is the hottest..." (this is an example where the number would help to avoid ambiguity as the argument's "real" title currently is "It hasn't warmed since 1998"). We will eventually have a very long list of arguments with different explanation-levels so the fixed numbers will make it easier to see which have already been tackled. The numbers will also help with eventually keeping track of the translations. Cheers Baerbel | |
2010-08-09 14:26:36 | Thumbs up on Baerbel suggestion re numbering system | |
doug_bostrom dbostrom@clearwire... 184.77.83.151 |
Existing numeric organization will stand-in for the time being, possible for good. | |
2010-08-10 01:06:23 | Suggestion for text size and link to rebuttals | |
John Russell jr@johnrussell... 82.70.63.102 |
Two points. 1) I wonder if I'm alone in finding the text in this message box that I'm writing in, too small (and with no way of making it larger that I can see)? I'm not a spring chicken and I'm finding it painful: even the zoom facility in Firefox leaves it still a bit too small. 2) It would be useful if the three boxes in the rebuttal list linked to the appropriate threads, John. I'm imagining it could get very difficult to find one's way around the forum once the list starts being more extensively populated. Best wishes, JR | |
2010-08-10 01:18:51 | Suggestions for text size... | |
John Russell jr@johnrussell... 82.70.63.102 |
Forget my point 1 -- I cracked the problem. | |
2010-08-10 23:20:02 | figures | |
Robert Way robert_way19@hotmail... 24.224.230.112 |
I was wondering how are people putting in their figures? | |
2010-08-11 15:18:57 | How to post figures | |
John Cook john@skepticalscience... 121.222.17.49 |
There are several ways you can insert a figure into your posts:
| |
2010-08-11 23:59:50 | ok got it | |
Robert Way robert_way19@hotmail... 24.224.230.112 |
thanks a lot, kinda a bit of trouble for what should be more straightforward eh? haha | |
2010-08-13 00:07:08 | Image uploader | |
John Cook john@skepticalscience... 121.222.17.49 |
Yeah, it is clunky. I'll work on making it more straightforward. | |
2010-08-14 01:09:19 | ||
Ari Jokimäki arijmaki@yahoo... 91.154.110.28 |
Is there a way to navigate to the forum from the homepage? At least I didn't find it. It's not a problem for me anymore as I've added the forum link to my favorites, but it might not be a bad idea to include a link to forums (for those with access) either to the personal link list in the left bar or to the author admin page. | |
2010-08-16 15:57:40 | Link to forum from SkS website | |
John Cook john@skepticalscience... 121.222.17.49 |
Ari, there is a link to the forum from Skeptical Science but only in the left margin underneath the "You are logged in as..." - it only appears if you're logged in and have sufficient clearance to access the forum. As this is still a private forum, I'm not going to post public links to it. I may add a general public forum later on but only when its developed to the point of having a robust moderation system. Also, just updated the first post at the top of this thread, laying out instructions on how to post rebuttals for new people (or old people who weren't paying attention first time around). | |
2010-08-25 18:24:44 | Advice on searching | |
John Russell jr@johnrussell... 82.70.63.102 |
Does anyone have any suggestions for how I can do an advanced search to show only search results for, say, something that appeared before a certain date? I use the alternative -- last week, last 24 hours, last year -- all the time, but I'd really like to be able to find out whether a certain popular phrase was used before a certain date. The only way I can see at the moment is to trawl through every one of 100,000+ hits to note the date of each -- and that's not on. Any ideas? Best wishes, JR | |
2010-08-26 00:05:26 | slow connection | |
nealjking nealjking@gmail... 91.33.112.139 |
JC, I hate to complain, but the connection to this site is terribly slow. Is there anything that can be done? | |
2010-08-26 10:27:42 | Slow loading | |
John Cook john@skepticalscience... 124.187.125.135 |
Neal, do you mean just the Authors Forum that's slow for you or all the pages on my site? If just the homepage of the Authors Forum (which I've noticed has gotten slower as it's bloated with size), I might be able to trim it back by rejigging the database structure and reducing the number of database queries. | |
2010-08-27 21:12:53 | slow | |
nealjking nealjking@gmail... 84.151.44.130 |
Just the authors' forum. | |
2010-09-04 05:36:46 | Another suggestion | |
nealjking nealjking@gmail... 84.151.34.163 |
Right now, a thread you have never looked at is bright blue; then it turns dark blue once you have looked at it. Would it be possible to renew its "virgin" status when someone posts a new reply in that thread? That way, it would be easy to tell if there is something that I haven't read before. Neal | |
2010-09-12 11:14:55 | Virgin threads and slow forums | |
John Cook john@skepticalscience... 121.222.93.62 |
Firstly, I just fixed the slow loading of the forums. So they'll come down the line about 100 times faster than before.
re virgin threads, that's easy enough to do - just append a variable to the URL like &r=7 where the number is the number of replies. But what I have been planning is a "email me when someone replies to this hread" subscription option. Particularly useful for an author waiting for feedback on their rebuttal. Would this suffice? Or both? | |
2010-09-12 17:45:50 | Both would be preferable | |
nealjking nealjking@gmail... 84.151.43.165 |
- The "color refresh" would be useful if one drops onto the page and wants to work one's way down the site, making sure no topic is being neglected. - The email subscription is great for notification; it should be optional on a per-thread basis, to avoid being driven mad on a hot topic. | |
2010-09-14 13:01:43 | Colour refresh done | |
John Cook john@skepticalscience... 121.222.93.62 |
Only took a few seconds so done and dusted. Email subscription bit more work, will take a little longer to get to :-) | |
2010-09-14 19:12:28 | I like it! | |
nealjking nealjking@gmail... 91.33.111.29 |
I think it helps a lot. Now, if you could re-order the listings in the Basic/Intermediate/Advanced threads so that comments against already-approved (Green) articles take their place by order of posting, instead of being segregated way out of sight, I think that would also save time.
Neal | |
2010-09-14 20:27:32 | Shuffling approved threads back up the top | |
John Cook john@skepticalscience... 121.222.93.62 |
Do we really want to do that? I thought it was good to file those away to the bottom to clear up the forum for the active threads. Easy enough for me to change but am willing to hear other thoughts on this. | |
2010-09-14 20:44:09 | ||
nealjking nealjking@gmail... 91.33.111.29 |
John, If they're not active in some sense (either under development, or being discussed for some other reason), they will be buried and migrate downward naturally. Whereas, if they're being discussed, why should they be way down there anyway? Other views? | |
2010-09-14 22:43:12 | Belated discoveries... | |
BaerbelW baerbel-for-350@email... 93.231.175.222 |
...of things like typos could be more easily brought to the attention of the original author if the published rebuttals were to stick to the top instead of being relegated to the bottom of the thread-list. That said, it's still helpful for them to be color-coded green and to show the green pin-icon on the left. Cheers | |
2010-09-14 23:41:26 | I concur with BaerbelW | |
nealjking nealjking@gmail... 91.33.111.29 |
about the green coding for already-published articles: It's useful to know. OK, I'll shut up again. | |
2010-09-14 23:41:34 | ||
nealjking nealjking@gmail... 91.33.111.29 |
||
2010-09-15 10:39:04 | Quick questions | |
climatesight Kate climatesight@live... 74.216.61.82 |
Hello, I am new to this and have just claimed the rebuttal "Breathing contributes to CO2 buildup". I am not sure whether or not the article I have in mind will be intermediate or basic, so I chose intermediate - when I post it here, if people think it should be under basic, is that easy to change? Also, am I allowed to cross-post it at my blog? Thanks! Kate | |
2010-09-15 11:29:02 | Yes and yes | |
John Cook john@skepticalscience... 121.222.93.62 |
Hi Kate. Yes, easy enough to change. Neal wrote a basic rebuttal to "positive feedback means runaway warming" but it was so complex, I changed it to advanced. Definitely yes to cross-posting on your blog. Have heard the breathing argument, look forward to reading the response! | |
2010-09-15 17:23:15 | Basic/Intermediate/Advanced | |
nealjking nealjking@gmail... 84.151.32.54 |
My general suggestion is that, if you plan to write at more than one level, you write first the most complex version. Then you can make sure that you have all the logic and evidence worked out. Then figure out what you can afford to cut back for the simpler versions. That doesn't mean that the simpler versions are just abbreviations; but you will know where the pitfalls could be if someone reading the Basic version knows enough to look for weak points. Just my POV.
Neal | |
2010-09-15 19:46:02 | Which version to write first | |
John Cook john@skepticalscience... 121.222.93.62 |
Good point, Neal, probably most practical to write the advanced version first. Definitely the most efficient way to go. On a slightly related note, I'm writing a new rebuttal to the "it's only a few degrees warming" argument. Was planning on writing a basic rebuttal first. I'm not very efficient :-( | |
2010-09-15 20:31:43 | ||
nealjking nealjking@gmail... 84.151.32.54 |
It also depends on which ones you're planning to write yourself: If you're planning to farm out the Advanced version, there's not much point in waiting on that, might as well get your own thoughts in order. Also, when I did the feedback articles, I let good ideas and 2nd thoughts regarding the Basic article revise the Advanced article, as appropriate. That's really why they were all released at the same time: They weren't individually finished until they were all finished. | |
2010-09-16 07:22:23 | More about color refresh | |
nealjking nealjking@gmail... 84.151.32.54 |
It would be very convenient if I could monitor everything from one page, such as the Authors' page. The Authors' page already shows the most recent poster in the Basic/Intermediate/Advanced rebuttal pages, the Chat heading on the lefthand bar, and of course displays the articles in the Authors' list. These last show the color-refresh property. If you could set the 3 rebuttal-page headings and the chat heading to also have color refresh, I could open a window on just the Authors' page and be aware of the status of the entire site, with respect to my having read items. As it is now, I have to circle to the rebuttal and chat sites to check it out. Is this possible? | |
2010-09-18 08:24:54 | Thanks for fixing the segregation | |
nealjking nealjking@gmail... 91.33.127.130 |
of the "mature" comments, so the ordering is strictly chronological, in the Basic rebuttal area. Now all the updates show up easily. | |
2010-09-20 08:53:25 | Sub-forum link colours | |
John Cook john@skepticalscience... 121.222.93.62 |
Okay, the sub-forums are now "color coded" too in that the link includes the number of posts submitted in that forum. So if you're visited the sub-forum and the link goes purple, then someone posts something else in the sub-forum, the link reverts back to blue. Nifty, actually, I like just popping into the Authors Forum, quick visual check to see if there's any new activity. I'm becoming quite addicted to this forum! | |
2010-09-20 17:35:16 | Yet another functionality for the wish-list | |
BaerbelW baerbel-for-350@email... 93.231.155.181 |
Would it be possible to give us the option to "mark all posts in a (sub)forum" read? This is something which can be helpful if there are many recently unread posts/threads where the user doesn't have the time or interest to actually call them all up once to mark them as actually "read". This is obviously something in the category of "nice to have" and not "need to have"! Cheers | |
2010-09-20 20:47:06 | Marking threads as read | |
John Cook john@skepticalscience... 121.222.93.62 |
If you mean changing the link colour of all the threads so they all go purple like they were visited, I'm sorry - I wouldn't have a clue how to do that - I don't even know if its possible. Any boffins have an idea on how to achieve this, please let me know :-) | |
2010-11-27 22:42:16 | ||
Bob Guercio Robert Guercio robertguercio@optonline... 24.187.94.227 |
John, The folder at www.skepticalscience.com/pics is a forbidden zone. It may be a good idea to allow us to have "read only" access to this area. We would be able to see the pictures that we have uploaded and we would be able to use those of the other authors if they meet our needs. It may also be good idea for each of us to have our own private section where we can store our pictures and change them as we please. Thanks, Bob
| |
2010-12-11 18:41:44 | ||
villabolo villabolo@yahoo... 76.93.91.62 |
||
2011-01-14 06:44:56 | Font Size | |
John Hartz John Hartz john.hartz@hotmail... 98.122.68.19 |
Do you intend to add a "Font Size" button? | |
2011-06-13 06:06:06 | ||
hfranzen hfranzen@iastate... 174.124.118.183 |
Uncertainty in Global Warming Science Since the time of Kepler and Galileo there has been steady progress in the precision with which humans can predict the outcome of kinematic events. As is well known major advances were made by Newton and Einstein and today we can predict with extraordinary accuracy the trajectory of an object traveling with a known velocity under the influence of gravitational forces. This does not mean that the trajectory of a rocket traveling to Mars, for example, is known with absolute precision but is to some extent uncertain. In part this uncertainty is introduced both by our inability to determine the velocity with perfect precision and by the perturbations of gravitational effects arising from more distant objects. Therefore it is correct to say, even in this very well understood case, that the results of the scientific calculation are “uncertain”. Such uncertainty is a reality in all scientific calculations and those who depend upon the results of such calculations must be aware of this fact. However in cases of the character of rocket trajectory calculations the uncertainties themselves are understood such that we can be very certain that a rocket meant to go to Mars will arrive there barring some unforeseen catastrophe such as an engine failure or a giant solar flare. In the same fashion there are many areas in our lives (communication, GPS, air traffic control, cat scans, MRI, internal combustion, electric generation and transmission, radar, computer automation, etc.) that depend upon the results of science and have associated with them uncertainties that are both known and known to be negligible in terms of the particular application to which the relevant science (electromagnetism, quantum mechanics, classical mechanics , etc.) is applied. This is simply to state an obvious fact of our lives in the 21st century. What I have briefly described above is a type of science that I will, for convenience call Type A. I will take science to be of Type A if, in principal, the uncertainty in the result and the uncertainty in that uncertainty can be numerically calculated and the relative uncertainties in each can be determined to be less than some set percentage. For me, then, Type B science depends on equations that are less precisely constrained than in Type A science. In the case of Type B science there is difficulty in defining quantities and boundary conditions. The equations in Type B science cannot be solved with the same precision as for Type A and, equally important, the uncertainty in the uncertainty is frequently unknown.. An example of a result of Type B science is the prediction of weather. We may be told, for example, that there is a 75% chance of rain in our area. This “prediction” is based upon the understanding that meteorologists have of the basic equations governing the movement of air masses , the changes of temperature and pressure with such movement and the condensation of water vapor, however the conditions limiting the equations in this case, the boundary conditions, are not so precisely defined and the objects to which the equations apply not so well defined as in the previous cases. The conclusions of Type B science have a much greater range of relative uncertainty than for Type A. The 25% uncertainty suggested by the 75% probability would of course be totally unacceptable in a Type A calculation of, say, the osmotic pressure of an injected serum or the probability of a mid-air collision. Furthermore, the uncertainty in that 25% uncertainty in the weather itself is, from everyday experience, quite a bit larger than would be acceptable for placing a lander on Mars or determining the locations of neighboring planes in the vicinity of an airport. This, by the way, is not to demean meteorology – given the complexity of the problem the meteorologists do a marvelous job! Then there is Type C science. A major tool of what I call Type C science is curve fitting. One seeks to fit a curve to data using parameters with no apriori physical meaning, but that provide the smallest residual “error” . In many cases it is the best that can be done, but the results are inevitably open to doubt. An example is the growth of a population with time where an observer fits the data to a population vs. time curve and uses this to interpolate or extrapolate populations to times for which measurements are not available. Such curves are always open to question even though in the hands of a skilled observer they may be used to reach significant conclusions (think Malthus). Now, finally, I will turn my attention to global warming. My concern is that there is science of all three types applied to global warming and that frequently, when the validity of conclusions is under discussion, no distinction is made between the three types of science. Taking the earth’s temperature as a function of time as an example, many deniers have focused on the uncertainties associated with the interpretation of tree ring or ice core data. In my view this is o.k. to a certain extent, i.e. I believe that those who have made the measurements and compiled the data can and do adequately defend their conclusions. But it is my personal view that global warming is based first and foremost upon the conclusion of Type A science (the interaction of the earth’s Planck radiation with the rot-vib modes of atmospheric carbon dioxide and the experimental and theoretical determination of the extent of this interaction ). It is also my view that only upon the basis of Type A science is one able evaluate the Type C science inherent in fitting the earth’s temperature to time. A major problem, as I see it, is that when deniers question the Type C science without coming to grips with the underlying Type A science they can deceive themselves and others into believing that they are attacking the basic structure of global warming science whereas in reality they are just dealing with a detail in the superstructure. They may in fact deal with a detail in the detail, e.g. selecting for discussion a particular subset of data (“cherry picking”). On the other hand to deny the Type A science showing global warming without finding a flaw in the argument (see hfranzen.org for a basic discussion of the effect without feedbacks or interferences) is like saying , ”I accept almost all of mathematics but deny the validity of Euler’s Theorem”. Just as it would make sense to disprove Euler’s Theorem if one could it would make sense to disprove the Type A science demonstrating GW if one could, but it makes no sense to simply deny it without refuting the science while accepting the myriad results of Type A science that come into play in our daily lives. And further it makes no sense to attack the average earth temperature vs. time (hockey-stick) curve without first coming to grips with the Type A science of GW. To my way of thinking the hockey stick is not the basis of GW science, it is derivative and confirmatory, and its basic correctness depends upon the fundamental Type A science underlying the temperature changes. The gist of what I am saying is this – when deniers confront an issue dealing with Type C science they should be asked to first consider the question, “Do you accept the basic conclusion of quantum mechanics and spectroscopy that global warming is occurring right now?” If their answer is “no” than it seems to me that it is Type A science that should be considered before tackling the Type C science. If their answer is yes, then, importantly, it is not possible for them to take the fact of a disagreement as a demonstration that the major thrust of the science of global warming is basically flawed. Furthermore any discussion of some aspect of the Type C science can be meaningfully limited to the relevant issue without trying to discuss the larger question of the validity of the GW proposition. In short, if a denier disputes the claims of the hockey stick and is unwilling to accept the basic science of absorption of infra-red radiation by carbon dioxide then it is fruitless to discuss the hockey stick with that denier. On the other hand if they accept the basic science but deny the hockey stick then it can be worthwhile exploring their concerns and pointing out that the hockey stick result follows straightforwardly if not rigorously from the known increasing energy input into the earth. In the discussion that follows they might be able to find some basis for criticism of the hockey stick curve beyond the fact that they simply don’t want to believe in global warming, and if the criticism is valid this would be a win-win situation.
| |
2011-06-13 12:14:31 | ||
Daniel Bailey Daniel Bailey yooper49855@hotmail... 97.83.150.37 |
Dr. Franzen, do you mean to have this form the basis for a blog ppst? | |
2011-06-14 11:01:40 | ||
hfranzen hfranzen@iastate... 174.124.118.183 |
I am submitting this as a guest editorial. I have tried to direct my remarks ro both deniers and those who are presenting rational GW analysis. |